Algèria flag Algèria: Visió econòmica i política

El context econòmic d'Algèria

Economic Indicators

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

The Algerian economy is mainly driven by hydrocarbons and public investment. Hydrocarbons account for 40% of GDP, 94% of exports and one third of fiscal revenues. Algeria’s economic growth was already weakened by the negative trend in hydrocarbon production and prices, the lack of economic diversification and political uncertainty before the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, GDP contracted by an estimated -4.9% (IMF), hit by the additional shock of the health crisis. Higher oil prices and strong European demand for gas supported the recovery in 2021. According to IMF estimates, GDP growth rebounded to 3.4% in 2021, and is expected to slow down to 1.9% in 2022 and 1.7% in 2023. Tougher base effect and tighter fiscal policy explain this slower activity (Focus Economics). Oil prices volatility, the apparition of new virus variants and social and geopolitical tensions are the main downside risks to the outlook (IMF).

Algeria’s economy was hardly hit by the combined effect of declining hydrocarbon revenues and the COVID-19 pandemic. It started to recover in 2021 thanks to the relaxation of containment measures and a rebound in hydrocarbon prices and production, but the crisis has increased Algeria’s ongoing economic vulnerabilities. Continued large fiscal and external current account deficits have reduced policy space as public debt increased significantly and international reserves declined (IMF). Budget deficit reached an estimated -11.8% GDP in 2021, and is forecast to remain at that high level in 2022 (IMF). Public debt is soaring, estimated at 58.5% GDP in 2021, 63.2% GDP in 2022 and 68.2% GDP in 2023 (IMF). Algeria’s external debt level is at low levels but could increase in the event of adverse shocks or increased fiscal deficits (Euler Hermes). International reserves are depleted. At the end of 2021, foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 43 billion, covering around 11 months of imports. The IMF is expecting a continued depletion of international reserves to USD 12 billion (only 3 months of import coverage) by 2026 (Euler Hermes). Inflationary pressures have intensified since the end of 2020 due to higher international food prices and an episode of drought. Estimated at 6.5% in 2021, it is forecast to increase to 7.6% in 2022 and to decrease slightly to 6.3% in 2023 (IMF). The authorities are following a gradual and sustained fiscal consolidation, adjusted to the evolution of the pandemic and to domestic economic conditions. The new Government Action Plan comprises a wide range of reforms to support the transition towards a more diversified and sustainable economy and bolster governance and social cohesion. The country is looking for ways to reduce its dependence on gas for power generation by investing in solar energy.

According to IMF estimates, unemployment hit 14.1% of the population in 2021, and will further increase to 14.7% in 2022 and 15.5% in 2023. Employment and purchasing power deteriorated drastically since the Covid-19 crisis. According to the World Bank, unemployment is highest among youth, women and graduates due to skills mismatch in the labour market. There are also big differences between living conditions in cities and rural areas. Instability caused by radical groups on Algeria's borders remains a risk factor.

 
Main Indicators 201920202021 (e)2022 (e)2023 (e)
GDP (billions USD) 171.07e147.60e163.81168.20172.09
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 0.8-4.93.41.91.7
GDP per Capita (USD) 3,940e3,337e3,6383,6723,697
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 45.855.6e58.563.268.2
Inflation Rate (%) 2.02.47.28.78.2
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) 11.414.0e14.114.715.5
Current Account (billions USD) -16.96-18.71-12.49-9.19-9.08
Current Account (in % of GDP) -9.9-12.7-7.6-5.5-5.3

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021

Note: (e) Estimated Data

Main Sectors of Industry

Agriculture accounts for 14.1% of GDP and employs 10% of the workforce (World Bank, 2020). The main crops are wheat, barley, oats, citrus, wine grapes, olives, tobacco and dates. Algeria produces a large quantity of cork and is an important livestock farmer. In late 2020, the government introduced a 2020-2024 roadmap strategy to develop the soft wheat, maize, sugar and oilseeds sectors with the aim to reduce the annual food import bill (FAO). The primary sector was the most resilient to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The size of the industry represents 20.3% of GDP, employing 30% of the active population. The oil and gas sector accounts for most of the federal income and almost all of its export income (over 90% of total exports). Algeria is among the top five largest gas exporters in the world. It ranks 16th in oil reserves and 10th in confirmed gas reserves. The ores mined in large quantities are iron, lead, phosphate, uranium, zinc, salt and coal. The main activities of the manufacturing sector are industrial food processing, textile products, chemical products, metals and construction materials. Oil was the one most affected by COVID-19 crisis. The manufacturing sector has also been severely affected due to temporary plant closures, workers' lock-downs and the paralysis of national and international supply chains. In particular, demand has fallen in key sectors such as automotive and textiles.

The tertiary sector contributes to 48.7% of GDP and employs 60% of the workforce. Algeria's banking sector is dominated by public banks, which suffer from high levels of non-performing loans to state-owned enterprises. Of the 20 banks operating in Algeria, six state-run banks retain the lion’s share of the market. With over 1600 km of Mediterranean coastline, important cultural and historical sites, and the striking desert landscapes of the Sahara, Algeria has long held considerable potential for tourism. Nevertheless, the sector still accounts for a small part of GDP.

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 9.6 30.4 60.0
Value Added (in % of GDP) 14.2 34.2 47.8
Value Added (Annual % Change) 1.6 -7.3 -5.3

Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.

 

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Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}

Score:
49,7/100
World Rank:
162
Regional Rank:
13


 

Business environment ranking

Definition:

The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.

Score:
4.47/10
World Rank:
76/82

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024

 

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Actualitzacions: September 2022

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