Panorama econòmic

Economic indicators

Among the largest oil producers in Africa, Angola also boasts the third-largest GDP in sub-Saharan Africa (IMF). However, economic growth is susceptible to significant fluctuations, depending on oil production and price levels. After growing 3% in 2022, the IMF estimated a GDP increase of only 1.3% in 2023 amid lower oil production. Moreover, higher inflation dampened consumption and the import of goods, weighing on non-oil economic activity. According to the IMF’s latest estimates, GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 3.3% in 2024 and remain stable in the medium term, thanks to structural reforms supporting the non-oil sector.

The general government deficit was estimated at 1.2% of GDP in 2023, following a surplus one year earlier (+0.2%). The government foresees an improvement in the upcoming years driven by a 50% reduction in gasoil subsidies in 2024 and a further 25% reduction in 2025. In 2023, the IMF projected that Angola's general government debt would rise to 84.9% of GDP, compared to 66.7% in 2022. This increase was influenced by the depreciation of the kwanza and its impact on the government's substantial foreign-currency debt holdings. The debt ratio is expected to decrease to 77.1% and 67.9% of GDP in 2024 and 2025, respectively, reflecting nominal GDP growth and primary budget surpluses. Additionally, the interest/revenue ratio is forecasted to be relatively high at 23.9% in 2024 (Fitch Ratings). The IMF anticipates that inflation will average 22.3% in 2024 and 18.1% in 2025, compared to an estimated 13.1% in 2023. This projection is attributed to the depreciation of the kwanza and the continued implementation of reforms regarding gasoil subsidies.

President Joao Lourenço initiated numerous reforms aimed at reducing the influence of the dos Santos family on the economy, improving the perception of the business climate, and addressing the country's crisis, but the social situation in Angola remains tense. Inequalities and inflation are fueling dissatisfaction among the population. Only a third of the population has access to electricity, and although income per capita has been gradually increasing, especially in metropolitan regions, poverty and unemployment rates remain high. According to the latest figures from the World Bank, the unemployment rate stood at 14.5% at the end of 2022. In 2023, the government approved the creation of the National Employment Fund in Angola (Funea), which already had EUR 44.3 million available for the year, to mitigate unemployment, mainly among youth.

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