Panorama econòmic

Economic indicators

Argentina has a long history of political and economic instability - with significant growth fluctuations every year. After two years of recession (–1.6% in 2023, –3.5% in 2024), GDP is projected to grow in 2026 (IMF). Quarterly growth stood at 2.0% year-on-year in Q2/2026, although GDP fell 0.6% against the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, according to INDEC. Agriculture, livestock, and mining led the expansion, with manufacturing, construction, and trade also showing strong recoveries. Real credit is increasing. Over the forecast horizon, recovery will be driven by real wage gains, declining inflation, and a stronger labour market, boosting private consumption. Investments will rise with improved confidence and a new preferential regime for large projects. Imports are expected to outpace export growth as domestic demand rebounds. However, delays in planned reforms pose a key downside risk.

The government led by Milei, who took office in December 2023, faces the imperative task of consolidating public finances to stabilize the economy. The authorities are pursuing an economic stabilization program focused on aggressive fiscal adjustment to reverse past BCRA monetary financing, a crawling-peg exchange rate, negative real interest rates to reduce peso liabilities, and maintaining FX controls to support these measures. In 2025, Argentina recorded its second consecutive budget surplus, totalling ARS 1.45 trillion (0.2% of GDP). The primary fiscal surplus, excluding debt payments, reached ARS 11.77 trillion (1.4% of GDP). In mid-2024, Congress approved a fiscal package lowering the income tax floor and adjusting the personal goods tax, expected to raise revenues by 0.5% of GDP annually. Meanwhile, Milei’s refusal to submit the 2025 budget to Congress has sparked backlash from provincial governors, as he seeks to retain control over public spending amid demands for increased funding for public works and local pensions. The 2025 budget aims for a balanced headline budget and requires automatic spending cuts to cover revenue shortfalls. In line with the deficit reduction, the national debt-to-GDP ratio decreased from 155.4% in 2023 to 91.5% last year and is expected to follow a downward trend, landing at around 70.4% by 2026 (IMF). Argentina is a country plagued with hyperinflation; however, 2025 showed positive signs, as inflation went down to 31.5, 86.3 points less than in 2024, when prices rose by 117.8% (data INDEC).

Despite challenges, the labour market remains resilient, with unemployment standing at 7.4% in 2025, although it increased compared to the previous year (7.2% - IMF). Nonetheless, informality has surged, reaching 45.0% of employment in Q2 2026 (INDEC). The IMF expects the unemployment rate to remain relatively stable over the forecast horizon. The Argentine government has faced difficulties in fighting high levels of poverty, which affected 28.2% of the population in the second half of 2025, and the social situation of the country is characterised by constant underlying tensions between the Government and trade unions over the reforms announced. The country is also split between central and decentralised authorities over the distribution of federal revenues.

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