Argentina: Visió econòmica i política
Argentina has a long history of political and economic instability - with significant growth fluctuations every year. After two years of recession (–1.6% in 2023, –3.5% in 2024), GDP is projected to grow by 5% in 2025 and 2026 (IMF). Quarterly growth rebounded to 3.4% in Q3/2024, according to a monthly activity indicator. Agriculture, livestock, and mining led the expansion, with manufacturing, construction, and trade also showing strong recoveries. Real credit is increasing. Over the forecast horizon, recovery will be driven by real wage gains, declining inflation, and a stronger labour market, boosting private consumption. Investments will rise with improved confidence and a new preferential regime for large projects. Imports are expected to outpace export growth as domestic demand rebounds. However, delays in planned reforms pose a key downside risk.
The government led by Milei, who took office in December 2023, faces the imperative task of consolidating public finances to stabilize the economy. The authorities are pursuing an economic stabilization program focused on aggressive fiscal adjustment to reverse past BCRA monetary financing, a crawling-peg exchange rate, negative real interest rates to reduce peso liabilities, and maintaining FX controls to support these measures. In 2024, Argentina achieved its first budget surplus in over a decade, totalling ARS 1.76 trillion (0.3% of GDP). The primary fiscal surplus, excluding debt payments, reached ARS 10.41 trillion (1.8% of GDP). In mid-2024, Congress approved a fiscal package lowering the income tax floor and adjusting the personal goods tax, expected to raise revenues by 0.5% of GDP annually. Meanwhile, Milei’s refusal to submit the 2025 budget to Congress has sparked backlash from provincial governors, as he seeks to retain control over public spending amid demands for increased funding for public works and local pensions. The 2025 budget aims for a balanced headline budget and requires automatic spending cuts to cover revenue shortfalls. In line with the deficit reduction, the national debt-to-GDP ratio decreased from 155.4% in 2023 to 91.5% last year and is expected to follow a downward trend, landing at around 68% by 2026 (IMF). Argentina is a country plagued with hyperinflation; however, 2024 showed positive signs, as inflation went down to 117.8, 93.6 points less than in 2023, when prices rose by a record 211.4% (data INDEC).
Despite challenges, the labour market remains resilient, with unemployment standing at 8.2% in 2024, although it increased compared to the previous year (6.1% - IMF). Nonetheless, informality has surged, nearing 40% of the labour force (OECD). The IMF expects the unemployment rate to remain relatively stable over the forecast horizon. The Argentine government has faced difficulties in fighting high levels of poverty, which affects more than 40% of the population, and the social situation of the country is characterised by constant underlying tensions between the Government and trade unions over the reforms announced. The country is also split between central and decentralised authorities over the distribution of federal revenues.
| Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 645.51 | 604.38 | 574.20 | 611.29 | 647.76 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | -1.6 | -3.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.9 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 13,823 | 12,814 | 12,054 | 12,706 | 13,330 |
| General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | -4.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 155.4 | 91.5 | 78.5 | 68.0 | 59.8 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 133.5 | 229.8 | 62.7 | 31.8 | 17.5 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 6.1 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -20.96 | 3.58 | 3.23 | 4.69 | 6.67 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -3.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021
Despite recent economic struggles, Argentina continues to play an important role in the global economy, especially with regard to its agricultural production. The sector is mainly based on livestock farming (cattle production is a key economic sector and a major source of export earnings), cereal cultivation (wheat, corn and transgenic soy), citrus fruits, tobacco, tea and grapes (mostly for the production of wine). Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soy-derived products and the world’s third-largest producer of such products. The agricultural sector represents 5.9% of the country’s GDP and employs 1% of the population, according to the World Bank. Additionally, given that the country is rich in energy resources, Argentina also has great potential in terms of raw materials: it is the fourth-largest natural gas producer in Latin America, and it has the world's third-largest shale gas reserve and the fourth-largest lithium reserve. Agricultural exports are a key source of revenue for Argentina: the latest projections for 2024 pointed to a value of USD 30.5 billion in exports for the year.
According to the latest data from the World Bank, the industrial sector represents 25.1% of GDP and employs 23% of the population. Prominent sectors include food processing, automotive manufacturing, petrochemicals, and electronics. Historically, Argentina has been known for its agricultural output, and this remains a significant part of its industrial landscape, with food processing playing a vital role in the economy. Automotive manufacturing has also been a key sector, with several multinational companies operating in the country. In recent years, there has been a growing focus on renewable energy, particularly wind and solar power, as Argentina seeks to diversify its energy sources and reduce reliance on traditional fuels. According to data by INDEC, Argentina's industrial activity fell by 9.4% in 2024, although it saw an annual recovery in December (+8.4%) after 18 consecutive months of decline.
The service sector is the largest contributor to GDP, accounting for 53.1%, and it employs 76% of the active workforce. Key activities include finance, tourism, telecommunications, healthcare, education, and retail. Finance, particularly banking and insurance, plays an important role in Argentina's economy (around 5.1% of GDP). Tourism is pivotal and is estimated to account for almost 9% of the country’s GDP (data WTTC). Healthcare and education sectors continue to expand, and retail and consumer services are also important. The overall contribution of the commerce sector to the GDP stands at roughly 15%, according to official governmental figures.
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 0.6 | 23.0 | 76.4 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 5.9 | 25.1 | 53.1 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | -22.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024
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Actualitzacions: February 2025
