Bangla Desh flag Bangla Desh: Visió econòmica i política

El context econòmic de Bangla Desh

Economic Indicators

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Bangladesh recorded one of the fastest growth rates in the world in the past few years with a stable economic performance that has helped to reduce poverty and social inequalities. GDP growth reached 8.2% in 2019 and remained positive at 3.5% and 4.6% in 2020 and 2021 despite the international effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is forecasted to pick up to 6.5% in 2022 and 7.2% in 2023, according to the updated IMF forecasts from October 2021. The post-pandemic global economic recovery and the private consumption boosted by strong remittance flows from the Bangladeshi diaspora around the world are expected to be the key drivers of growth in 2022.

The general government gross debt remained relatively low in 2020 and 2021 - at 38.9% and 39.9% of GDP respectively - as a result of a tight fiscal policy. Nonetheless, the tax base is narrow owing to a number of exemptions, weighing on public revenue. Public debt ratio to GDP is consequently anticipated to increase to 41% in 2022 and remain stable in 2022. A new VAT law was introduced at the start of the fiscal year 2019-20 in an attempt to increase tax income; however, its impact has been limited since the launch. Financial situation of the banking sector remains weak due to a large share of non-performing loans and an increase in restructured loans. Inflation moderated to 5.6% in 2020 and 2021, and is expected to remain stable in 2022 (5.7%) and in 2023 (5.8%) despite the COVID-19 pandemic. Current account deficit was estimated to have narrowed to -1.1% of GDP in 2021 and was forecasted to reach -1.5% in 2022 and -1.9% in 2023. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, with extreme weather events estimated to have caused a loss of around 1.8% of GDP in the past few decades. The country has taken measures to promote green financing and is seeking grants from the international community, notably via the Green Climate Fund.

In 2022, the country’s most immediate challenge remains the economic, social and public health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The official unemployment rate according to the latest survey was 4.2% in 2019, 4.1% in 2020 and 6% in 2021 (Trading Economics, 2022) but this more than doubles to over 10% for the youth unemployment rate. More importantly, 29.8% of young people in Bangladesh, including over 47% for young women, were not involved in education, employment or training in 2020. Other social issues include constant social strikes, terrorist threats, limited access to capital by the population, and disputes over Teesta River water distribution with India. Climate change also poses a serious threat to Bangladesh. Transparency International ranks Bangladesh as 147th out of 180 countries in its Corruption Perceptions Index 2021, stable compare to a year earlier.

Fiscal risks include weak domestic revenue growth (if tax reforms are delayed) and higher COVID-19-related expenditure. In the financial sector, contingent liabilities from non-performing loans combined with weak capital buffers could necessitate recapitalizations of state owned banks and depress credit growth. External risks remain elevated. While demand for RMGs appears to be stabilising, the recovery is fragile. Demand for Bangladesh’s overseas workforce in the Persian Gulf region may also be impacted by the ongoing recession in that region, impairing future remittance inflows (World Bank, 2022).

 
Main Indicators 201920202021 (e)2022 (e)2023 (e)
GDP (billions USD) 302.40323.06e355.69390.61429.42
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 8.23.5e4.66.57.2
GDP per Capita (USD) 1,8551,962e2,1392,3272,534
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 35.738.939.941.041.0
Inflation Rate (%) 5.55.6e5.65.75.8
Current Account (billions USD) -5.10-4.72-3.81-5.84-8.26
Current Account (in % of GDP) -1.7-1.5e-1.1-1.5-1.9

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021

Note: (e) Estimated Data

Main Sectors of Industry

The Bangladeshi economy relies on its enormous human resources, rich agricultural soils and abundant water resources. Agriculture represented 12.9% of GDP and employed 38% of the total workforce in 2021 (World Bank, 2022). Main crops include rice, tea, jute, wheat, sugarcane, tobacco, spices, and fruits. Bangladesh is the world's fourth biggest rice producer, although shortages caused by natural disasters occasionally force the country to import rice. 

Industry represented 29.5% of GDP and employed 22% of the total workforce in 2021 (World Bank, 2022). Textile is by far the largest industry, accounting for more than 80% of the country's total exports. Secondary industries include paper, leather, fertilisers, metals, and pharmaceuticals.

Services accounted for 53.4% of GDP and employed 40% of the total workforce in 2021 (World Bank, 2022). Microfinance and computing are among the largest sectors, with the country's technology exports reaching around USD 1 billion per year. The government aims to increase technology exports to USD 5 billion by 2021.

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 38.3 21.3 40.4
Value Added (in % of GDP) 12.6 28.8 54.6
Value Added (Annual % Change) 3.0 1.3 3.4

Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.

 

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Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}

Score:
56,5/100
World Rank:
120
Regional Rank:
25

Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation

 

Business environment ranking

Definition:

The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.

Score:
5.02/10
World Rank:
71/82

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024

 

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.
 

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Sources of General Economic Information

Ministries
Ministry of Finance
Statistical Office
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
Central Bank
Bangladesh Bank
Stock Exchange
Dhaka Stock Exchange
Chittagong Stock Exchange
Economic Portals
Bangladesh Economy
 

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