Brasil: Visió econòmica i política
Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and ranks among the world’s top ten by nominal GDP. With a diverse industrial base and abundant natural resources, it also stands in the top seven by purchasing power parity. Over the last few years, Brazil’s economy has shown remarkable resilience and performed better than expected in 2024, growing an estimated 3% with a positive contribution from domestic demand from the private sector. However, growth is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2025 and 2026 (IMF). Household consumption, accounting for around two-thirds of GDP, should remain the main growth driver, supported by a tight labour market and minimum wage adjustments boosting real incomes. However, its expansion will ease due to the lagged impact of tight lending conditions.
Public accounts remain a weak point for Brazil, with mandatory spending making up 92% of total expenditures (Coface). In November 2024, the government proposed a budget plan with spending cuts of 0.6% of GDP for 2025–2026 to meet primary balance targets. However, markets found the cuts inadequate, weakening the Brazilian Real. A diluted version of the plan passed Congress in December 2024. The IMF estimated the budget deficit to be 8.2% in 2024 (from 7.4% one year earlier), with a primary deficit of USD 3.3 billion, narrower than the maximum shortfall permitted under its fiscal rules. For 2025, the deficit is expected to hover around 8%. The high gross public debt has been following an upward trend in recent years, reaching 87.6% of GDP in 2024. The trend is anticipated to continue over the forecast horizon, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 94.7% by 2026 (IMF). In 2024, inflation reached 4.83%, according to government data. In response to rising inflation expectations, fiscal uncertainties, and a 27% depreciation of the Brazilian Real against the USD, the central bank resumed monetary tightening, ending the year with a 12.25% policy rate, with a forecast for a further increase. For 2025 and 2026, the IMF forecasts the inflation rate to ease to 3.6% and 3.1%, respectively.
According to IBGE, the annual unemployment rate was 6.6% in 2024, the lowest index in the time series started in 2012. The rate stood at 5.1% for men and 7.6% for women. By education level, those with incomplete secondary education had the highest unemployment rate (10.3%). Among individuals with incomplete higher education, the rate was 6.6%, double that of those with a completed higher degree (3.3%). Overall, the country continues to face social issues and has one of the highest levels of inequality in the world, with high disparities between the country's regions. Even though Brazil has lifted millions of people out of poverty in the last 15 years, 10% of the population still lives in poverty, while the country's richest 5% have the same income as the remaining 95% of the population. Data from the IBGE shows that 8.7 million people were lifted out of poverty in 2023, and the poverty rate dropped from 31.6% to 27.4% of the total Brazilian population.
| Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 2,173.67 | 2,188.42 | 2,307.16 | 2,444.94 | 2,571.54 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 10,268 | 10,296 | 10,816 | 11,423 | 11,977 |
| General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | -7.4 | -8.2 | -8.0 | -7.3 | -6.2 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 84.7 | 87.6 | 92.0 | 94.7 | 96.4 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 8.0 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.4 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -21.75 | -38.25 | -40.90 | -44.40 | -43.85 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -1.0 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.7 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021
Brazil has abundant natural resources and a relatively diversified economy. The country is the world's largest producer of coffee, sugar cane and oranges, and is one of the world’s largest producers of soya. With forests covering half of the country and the world’s largest rainforest, Brazil is the world’s fourth-largest exporter of timber. Additionally, Brazil is home to the world’s largest commercial livestock herd. The country also attracts many multi-national groups in the food and bio-fuels industries. Still, even though agriculture represents around 40% of exports, it contributes relatively little to the GDP (6.2%) and only employs 8% of the population. According to the national statistics agency IBGE, Brazil's 2024 harvest produced 292.7 million tons of cereals, legumes, and oilseeds, a 7.2% decrease from 2023. Moreover, from January to November 2024, Brazilian agribusiness exports totalled USD 152.63 billion, representing 48.9% of the country’s total exports. A 5.2% decline in international price indices was partly offset by a 5.2% rise in export volumes.
Brazil is also a large industrial power and has benefited greatly from its mineral ore wealth. The country is the world’s second-largest exporter of iron and a major producer of aluminium. As an oil producer, Brazil is aiming to become more energy independent in the near future, with reserves that could make it one of the top oil producers in the world. Furthermore, the country is increasingly asserting itself in the textile, aeronautics, pharmaceutical, automobile, steel, and chemical industry sectors. Many of the world’s large automobile manufacturers have set up production plants in Brazil. Overall, the industry sector contributes 22.3% to the GDP and employs one-fifth of the population. According to IBGE, industrial production increased by 3.3% in 2023.
The service sector represents 58.9% of Brazilian GDP and employs 72% of the active workforce. In recent years, the country has embarked on the production of high added-value services, especially in the fields of aeronautics and telecommunications. Tourism has also been on the rise, making it an important segment of the sector (tourism revenue reached a record of USD 7.341 billion in 2024, bolstered by foreign tourist spending). Even though the services sector was hit the hardest during the pandemic, it showed a significant recovery, with growth reaching pre-pandemic levels. The sector's recovery was mainly driven by services to families, information and communication, and transport, as well as a gentle bounce of the tourism industry. According to data from IBGE, retail trade sales ended 2024 with a 4.7% year-on-year increase, the largest rise since 2012.
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 8.2 | 20.2 | 71.6 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 6.2 | 22.3 | 58.9 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | 15.1 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2021-2025
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Actualitzacions: February 2025
