Brasil flag Brasil: Visió econòmica i política

El context econòmic de Brasil

Economic Indicators

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Brazil is the world's thirteenth largest economy. The country is still working on rebuilding itself after the recession that happened seven years ago, when the economy contracted by almost 7%. Since then, Brazil hasn’t been able to grow at the same pace it was used to during the decade before the recession hit. However, the Brazilian economy has been experiencing a slow but steady recovery in recent years. In 2021, GDP grew by an estimated 5.2%, mainly driven by a gradual re-opening of the economy and higher commodity exports. South America's largest economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in the coming years, with the IMF predicting a GDP growth of 1.5% in 2022 and 2% in 2023.

In 2021, inflation rate reached an estimated 7.7%, surpassing the Central Bank's target of 5.25% - and salaries haven't followed. However, inflation is expected to decrease to 5.3% in 2022 and 3.5% in 2023. The relatively high inflation rate and tighter credit conditions weakened household consumption in 2021. The Brazilian government claim the worst for the economy is behind it, but show no sign it is willing to ease up on its commitment to austerity and strict fiscal discipline. Government debt is currently 90.6%, and is expected to remain stable over the next two years at 90.2% in 2022 and 91.7% in 2023. The country is still mired in debt, and the pension system is pointed out by President Bolsonaro as a key source of increasing public debt. As a result, the senate passed the bill to the much-debated pension reform - the effects of which are yet to be felt. The government budget balance registered a deficit of 5.9% in 2021, a rate which is expected to slightly increase in 2022 and 2023, reaching 7.1% and 6.2%, respectively. To mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the government continued implementing a series of fiscal measures in 2021, which included the expansion of heath spending, temporary income support to low-income households, and lower taxes and import levies on essential medical supplies, adding up to 1.4% of GDP. For 2022, however, that rate is expected to drop to 0.5% of GDP. Overall, Brazil's counter-cyclical packages in light of the pandemic have been effective in boosting economic activity, which has been gradually recovering. 

The unemployment rate in Brazil grew in 2021, reaching an expected 13.8%, mainly due to a prolonged period of low growth as the country recovered from the impacts of the pandemic. However, the government believes that the real figures are significantly higher, as an official unemployment survey shows that around 32 million people are under-utilised - meaning that they are either not working or working less than they could. Additionally, even those who are employed, often have informal jobs. In fact, the government estimates that 39.3 million people, or 41.6% of the country's employed work force, have informal jobs. The IMF expects that the unemployment rate will slightly decrease to 13.1% in 2022 and 12% in 2023, especially as the services sector recovers from the aftermath of the pandemic. Furthermore, the country continues to face social issues and has one of the highest levels of inequality in the world, with high disparities between the country's regions. Even though Brazil has lifted 28 million people out of poverty in the last 15 years, 10% of the population still live in poverty, while the country's richest 5% have the same income as the remaining 95% of the population.

 
Main Indicators 201920202021 (e)2022 (e)2023 (e)
GDP (billions USD) 1,877.821,444.721,645.841,810.611,958.41
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 1.4-4.14.70.31.6
GDP per Capita (USD) 8,936e6,8237,7418,4649,102
General Government Balance (in % of GDP) -5.7-12.1-5.9-7.1-6.2
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 87.798.990.690.291.7
Inflation Rate (%) 3.73.2e8.38.25.1
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) 11.913.5e13.813.112.0
Current Account (billions USD) -65.03-25.92-8.53-31.19-47.81
Current Account (in % of GDP) -3.5-1.8-0.5-1.7-2.4

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021

Note: (e) Estimated Data

Main Sectors of Industry

Brazil has abundant natural resources and a relatively diversified economy. The country is the world's largest producer of coffee, sugar cane and oranges, and is one of the world’s largest producers of soya. With forests covering half of the country and the world’s largest rainforest, Brazil is the world’s fourth largest exporter of timber. Additionally, Brazil is home to the world’s largest commercial livestock heard. The country also attracts many multi-national groups in the food and bio-fuels industries. Still, even though agriculture represents 40.1% of exports, it contributes relatively little to the GDP (5.9%) and only employs 9% of the population. Nevertheless, agriculture grew significantly in 2021, mainly driven by the increase in soybean production and higher agricultural commodity prices.

Brazil is also a large industrial power, and has benefited greatly from its mineral ore wealth. The country is the world’s second largest exporter of iron, and one of the world’s main producers of aluminium and coal. As an oil producer, Brazil is aiming to become energy independent in the near future, with reserves that could make it one of the top five oil producers in the world. Furthermore, the country is increasingly asserting itself in the textile, aeronautics, pharmaceutical, automobile, steel and chemical industry sectors. Many of the world’s large automobile manufacturers have set up production plants in Brazil. The industry sector contributes 17.6% to the GDP and employs 19.9% of the population. However, in 2021, the sector was affected by a lack of inputs, persistent inflation, and the high prices of raw materials and other costs, such as electricity - which surged due to a persistent draught that the country is still facing.

The service sector represents 62.9% of Brazilian GDP and employs 70.9% of the active workforce. In recent years, the country has embarked on the production of high added-value services, especially in the fields of aeronautics and telecommunications. Tourism has also been on the rise in recent years, making it an important segment of the sector. Even though the services sector was hit the hardest during the pandemic, it showed a significant recovery in 2021 as vaccination rates rose and people's mobility increased. The sector's recovery was mainly driven by services to families, information and communication, and transport, as well as a gentle bounce of the tourism industry.

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 9.1 20.0 70.9
Value Added (in % of GDP) 5.9 17.7 62.9
Value Added (Annual % Change) 2.0 -3.5 -4.5

Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.

 

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Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}

Score:
53,4/100
World Rank:
143
Regional Rank:
24


 

Business environment ranking

Definition:

The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.

Score:
6.26/10
World Rank:
51/82

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2021-2025

 

Country Risk

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Actualitzacions: September 2022

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