Canadà: Panorama econòmic
For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.
Following the unprecedented global crisis prompted by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic - which led to the largest economic contraction since 1945 - the Canadian economy rebounded in 2021, recording an estimated GDP growth of 5.7%. Rising global oil prices helped the recovery, together with the easing of containment measures that supported internal demand. The IMF expects the country to grow faster than the pre-pandemic trend, with a forecasted growth of 4.9% this year and 2.6% in 2023, although uncertainty remains at global level due especially to the insurgence of the Omicron variant of the virus.
After skyrocketing in 2020, Canada’s debt-to-GDP ratio decreased moderately to 109.9% in 2021 despite the fact that the government increased its borrowing in order to make the necessary temporary investments to stabilize the national economy amidst the extraordinary circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic. The IMF expects the debt to follow a downward trend in 2022 (103.9%) and 2023 (100.2%). Similarly, the general government balance recorded a deficit of 6.6% in 2021, although further withdrawal of pandemic support measures should contribute to a reduction of the deficit (projected at 2.7% this year and 1% in 2023). In the 20 years before the pandemic, goods inflation averaged only 1.4%. However, according to the latest figures by the Bank of Canada, supply constraints have led to higher inflation: the average inflation rate of goods in 2021 has been 4.4%, much higher than that of services, which has been 2.1%. Inflation should ease as energy price pressures abate and supply bottlenecks are resolved through 2022, with an IMF forecast of 2.6% (followed by 2% the year after).
After touching record lows, the unemployment rate jumped due to the pandemic. In 2021, the unemployment rate remained elevated (7.7%) and over a quarter of those unemployed have been out of work for half a year or more (up from 16% before the pandemic). Strong output growth will support increased labour demand and help pull unemployment down towards pre-pandemic levels: the IMF projects a gradual decrease, at 5.7% this year and 4.9% in 2023. Although Canadians enjoy a high per capita GDP (estimated at USD 51,713 in 2021), 1 in 7 (or 4.9 million) people in Canada live in poverty.
GDP Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 (e) | 2023 (e) | 2024 (e) |
GDP (billions USD) | 1.00 | 1.00e | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
GDP (constant prices, annual % change) | -5.2 | 4.5e | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
GDP per capita (USD) | 43 | 52e | 56 | 59 | 60 |
General government balance (in % of GDP) | -8.6 | -4.0 | -2.7 | -1.2 | -0.6 |
General government gross debt (in % of GDP) | 117.8 | 112.9 | 102.2 | 98.7 | 96.3 |
Inflation rate (%) | 0.7 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 |
Unemployment rate (% of the labor force) | 9.6 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.2 |
Current Account (billions USD) | -29.39 | 0.86 | 11.60 | -5.26 | -9.41 |
Current account (in % of GDP) | -1.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.4 |
Font: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, 2016
Note: (e) Estimated data
Monetary indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
Canadian dollar (CAD) - Average annual exchange rate for 1 EUR | 1.41 | 1.47 | 1.53 | 1.46 | 1.53 |
Font: World Bank, 2015
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Actualitzacions: January 2023