Croàcia: Visió econòmica i política
Croatia’s economic growth has consistently exceeded the EU average over the past four years. According to the Croatian Central Bank, GDP grew by 3.8% in 2024, driven primarily by private consumption, supported by strong real wage and employment growth, along with sustained investment. Government consumption also increased, on the back of a broad public sector wage reform that standardised salaries across institutions and sectors, leading to a significant one-off wage hike. Moreover, the tourism sector, one of the key drivers of economic growth, recorded a positive performance. GDP growth is projected to slow to 3.3% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026 as consumption growth eases due to slower wage increases. Investment growth will continue, supported by increased absorption of EU funds under the RRF and 2021-27 MFF, albeit at a reduced pace (data EU Commission).
Fitch Ratings estimated Croatia's fiscal deficit at 2.1% of GDP in 2024, up from 0.9% in 2023, primarily due to higher costs from the abovementioned wage bill reform implemented in April 2024. This reform raised total wage costs to 12.8% of GDP, a 1.5 percentage point increase from 2023. Defence spending was estimated at 2% of GDP in 2024, with plans to raise it to 2.5% by 2027 in response to geopolitical risks. Fitch expected the deficit to remain at 2.1% in 2025, below the government's 2.3% target, reflecting past outperformance of deficit targets. A new property and short-term rental tax, effective January 2025, was expected to generate an additional 0.3% of GDP in revenue, with further increases in the following years. However, elevated external uncertainty and potential pre-election spending in May 2025 posed risks to this projection. The deficit is forecast to narrow to 1.7% in 2026. Public debt as a percentage of GDP fell to 57.4% in 2024, with debt reduction expected to continue beyond 2024, although at a slower pace, due to the normalisation of nominal GDP growth, a balanced primary budget position, and Fitch's expectations of higher defence spending. Fitch forecasts public debt/GDP to decline to 53.5% by 2029. General government interest payments are projected to average 3.6% of revenue in 2025-2026. The country’s average annual inflation slowed to 3.0% in 2024, down from 8.0% in 2023 and 10.8% in 2022. Forecasts agree on a further decrease in 2025, at around 2.8%.
According to IMF estimates, unemployment decreased to 5.6% in 2024, from 6.2% one year earlier, and is expected to remain stable at 5.5% over the forecast horizon. Labour shortages persisted despite the rising influx of workers from non-EU countries. Though the average revenue of Croatians is still below the European one (with an estimated GDP per capita PPP of USD 48,811 in 2024 according to the IMF), Croatia remains the second most developed economy of the Balkan region, after Slovenia.
| Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 82.71 | 89.67 | 96.03 | 101.55 | 106.37 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 21,521 | 23,380 | 25,081 | 26,568 | 27,874 |
| General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | -1.8 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -1.9 | -1.5 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 63.0 | 59.9 | 58.7 | 57.8 | 57.0 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 8.4 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | 0.89 | 1.32 | 0.88 | 0.54 | 0.43 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021
The agricultural sector represents only 3.4% of the country's GDP and employs 4.7% of the workforce (World Bank, latest data available). Croatia has 1.5 million hectares of agricultural land and more than 1.9 million hectares of forests (FAO). The country is self-sufficient in the production of wheat, corn, sugar beet, fruits, wine, and olive oil; however, imports of agricultural products have been on the rise in recent years. The size of the farms is generally small (in most cases less than 3 hectares). According to preliminary figures from the State Bureau of Statistics (DZS), the value of real income in agriculture for 2024 was projected at EUR 1.62 billion, marking a decrease of 6.3% in relation to the previous year. Concerning the value of agricultural production, the latest projection pointed to a decrease of 0.3%, to EUR 2.83 billion.
The secondary sector contributes 21% of GDP and employs 27.5% of the active population. Croatian industry is concentrated in competitive activities: textiles, wood, steel industry, aluminium, and the food industry. With more than one-third of the territory covered with forests, the wood industry is one of the fundamental sectors of the economy. The country has limited mineral resources. The manufacturing sector is estimated to contribute 12% of the national value added. Data from the State Bureau of Statistics (DZS) indicate that Croatia's industrial output declined by 2.4% year-on-year in 2024. Mining saw a 0.7% decrease, manufacturing contracted by 1.5%, and utilities dropped by 8.2%.
The service sector represents 59.1% of the country’s GDP, employing 67.1% of the workforce. The tourism sector, in particular, is among the key segments of the Croatian economy, accounting for almost a quarter of GDP, one of the largest shares in the EU. According to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Croatia recorded a 4% increase in tourist arrivals in 2024, exceeding 21.3 million, and a 1% rise in overnight stays, surpassing 108.7 million. The retail sector is also important: in 2024, retail sales volume rose by a real 7.3% (data DZS). Croatia's banking sector, one of the economy's strongest, benefits from efficient regulation and disciplined borrowers. It comprises 20 banks and 3 home saving banks, with 90.2% foreign ownership, including 11 EU-owned banks. Nearly 150 EU institutions also offer services in Croatia.
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 4.7 | 27.5 | 67.9 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 3.4 | 21.0 | 59.1 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | 2.0 | 0.6 | 4.5 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024
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Actualitzacions: May 2025
