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Panorama econòmic

Economic indicators

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

After having recovered from the internal political crisis and revolutionary uprising of 2011, the Egyptian economy recently slowed down due to the outbreak of the COVID-19. According to IMF estimates, GDP growth continued to decrease to 3.3% in 2021 from 3.6% in 2020. Despite this slowdown, Egypt remained one of the few countries with positive growth rate in 2021. According to the IMF's forecast, GDP growth is projected to recover to 5.2% in 2022 and 5.6% in 2023, subject to the loosening of health measures and a post-pandemic global economic recovery.

In 2021, Egypt's economy continued to be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, as recovery was delayed by renewed surge in infections and the emergence of new Covid-19 variants. Proactive measures taken to address health and social needs and support the most directly affected sectors, as well as the IMF-supported economic reform program, helped mitigate the economic and human impact of the crisis (IMF). In addition, before the pandemic, the country was already in a strong position as it had implemented an economic reform program comprising fiscal consolidation measures, the introduction of a floating exchange rate and large cuts in subsidies. In 2021, the budget deficit increased slightly to -7.6% GDP (from -7% GDP in 2020), and is expected to decrease to -6.5% GDP in 2022 and -5.6% GDP in 2023 thanks to economic recovery (IMF). Public debt-to-GDP ratio increased to 91.4% in 2021 (from 89.8% in 2020) and is expected to decline to 89.5% in 2022 and 86.2% in 2023 (IMF). The public debt’s non-resident and foreign currency portions are expected to increase with international financing (Coface). Appropriate monetary policy allowed the inflation rate to further decrease and to stay well below the central bank’s target range, reaching 4.5% in 2021. It should stay under control but increase to 6.3% in 2022 and 7.1% in 2023, according to IMF estimates. For 2022, the priority remains to support the economic recovery while continuing to preserve macroeconomic stability. The authorities are committed to pursue the structural reform program that aims at more inclusive and sustainable private sector-led growth,  durable jobs creation and improved external resilience (IMF). The country’s post-Covid-19 recovery will be guided by the Egypt Vision 2030 strategy, which comprises numerous programs related to transport, entrepreneurship, logistics, environment etc. (Oxford Business Group). Major risks include a persistent COVID-19 pandemic, less favourable financing conditions for emerging markets, and a drop in remittances (IMF).

The official unemployment rate, after reaching its highest level in the past 11 years in 2015 (13.4%), has been declining slowly since then. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it increased to 9.3% in 2021 and should remain at that level in 2022 (9.2%) according to IMF estimates. It is estimated that three-quarters of all employees are paid as unofficial workers, and 32.5% of the population lives below the poverty line (state statistics agency CAPMAS). Female youth unemployment remains very high (53% in 2019 according to the World Bank).

 
GDP Indicators 201920202021 (e)2022 (e)2023 (e)
GDP (billions USD) 302.34363.25e396.33438.35476.36
GDP (constant prices, annual % change) 5.63.6e3.35.65.6
GDP per capita (USD) 3,0573,601e3,8524,1774,450
General government balance (in % of GDP) -7.7-7.0e-7.6-6.5-5.6
General government gross debt (in % of GDP) 84.289.8e91.489.586.2
Inflation rate (%) 13.95.74.57.511.0
Unemployment rate (% of the labor force) 8.68.3e9.39.28.8
Current Account (billions USD) -10.89-11.17-15.39-16.05-12.91
Current account (in % of GDP) -3.6-3.1-3.9-3.7-2.7

Font: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, 2016

Note: (e) Estimated data

 
Monetary indicators 20162017201820192020
Egyptian Pound (EGP) - Average annual exchange rate for 1 EUR 10.6720.0920.9619.7818.31

Font: World Bank, 2015

 

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Actualitzacions: September 2022

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