Hongria: Panorama econòmic
For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.
Contrasting with the trends observed in recent years, Hungary's GDP contracted sharply following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the backbone of growth - rising household income and exports - was severely impacted. Nevertheless, the economy was dynamic in 2021 despite headwinds from global supply chain disruptions, with an estimated growth of 7.6% (IMF). Underpinned by continuing fiscal stimulus measures and household consumption, economic growth is set to remain strong at 5.1% in 2022, before moderating to 3.8% in 2023 (IMF forecast).
Public finances have also been affected by the pandemic and the measures taken to contain its economic effects – including a one-time income tax refund to families with children, a subsidised loan programme for SMEs, an income tax cut for workers under age 25, the re-introduction of the 13th monthly pension and administrative wage increases – with an estimated budget deficit of 6.9% in 2021. As most measures fade out, the deficit is expected to decrease to 5.3% this year and 3.2% in 2023. Likewise, the debt-to-GDP ratio should resume its downward trend over the forecast period after reaching 76.6% in 2021. Public investment in 2022 will be partly financed by rising EU funds, which are also expected to provide a boost to investment. Rising commodity prices and wage pressures contribute to persistently high inflation: regulated prices for residential energy contributed to shield households from commodity price increases; however, companies are expected to pass their higher energy and wage costs on to consumers, fuelling non-energy inflation. Overall, the rate was estimated at 4.5% in 2021 by the IMF and it is forecast at 3.6% in 2022 and 3.3% in 2023.
Employment reached its pre-pandemic level in the summer of 2021 and job creation is set to continue as the economy grows. The rate was estimated at 4.1% in 2021 (from a pre-COVID level of 3.3%); as the IMF expects unemployment to stabilize around 3.8% over the forecast period. Meanwhile, wage growth is set to remain robust amid emerging signs of labour shortages, following the approval of a 20% minimum wage hike and sizeable salary increases in the public sector.
GDP Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 (e) | 2023 (e) | 2024 (e) |
GDP (billions USD) | 156.74 | 182.28e | 184.65 | 195.63 | 211.68 |
GDP (constant prices, annual % change) | -4.5 | 7.1e | 5.7 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
GDP per capita (USD) | 16 | 18e | 18 | 20 | 21 |
General government balance (in % of GDP) | -7.3 | -6.1 | -6.0 | -3.6 | -3.0 |
General government gross debt (in % of GDP) | 79.6 | 76.8 | 74.8 | 73.7 | 71.9 |
Inflation rate (%) | 3.3 | 5.1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 |
Unemployment rate (% of the labor force) | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
Current Account (billions USD) | -1.78 | -5.78 | -12.38 | -5.92 | -4.54 |
Current account (in % of GDP) | -1.1 | -3.2 | -6.7 | -3.0 | -2.1 |
Font: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, 2016
Note: (e) Estimated data
Monetary indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
Hungarian Forint (HUF) - Average annual exchange rate for 1 EUR | 299.49 | 310.00 | 318.82 | 326.63 | 351.79 |
Font: World Bank, 2015
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Actualitzacions: January 2023