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Panorama econòmic

Economic indicators

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Indonesia is seen as a future economic giant. It is the largest economy in Southeast Asia and the world's seventh by purchasing power parity (Index Mundi, 2021). Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the country registered negative GDP growth for the first time since 1998, going from +5% in 2019 to -2.1% in 2020. The GDP growth rate for 2021 was back in the positive territory with an estimated +3.2% (IMF, October 2021). The usual key drivers of the economy are private domestic consumption - stimulated by its huge market with a growing middle class of nearly 70 million people (55% of GDP), while the major issues are the ongoing trade tensions between China and the US, the country's two biggest trading partners, and the prolonged depreciation of the Rupiah. According to the IMF's October 2021 forecast, GDP growth is expected to return in full force at 5.9% in 2022 and 6.4% in 2023, subject to the post-pandemic global economy recovery.

According to the IMF, the budget deficit rose from 2.2% of GDP in 2019 to 4.7% in 2020 and 4.9% in 2021.The estimation predicts stabilisation of the deficit at 4.1% in 2022, before a reduction to 2.6% in 2023. Inflation was estimated at 1.6% in 2021 and is expected to increase to 2.8% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023 (IMF, October 2021). Public debt has shown a significant improvement since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998 (it reached up to 150% of GDP), but it rose slightly to 30.6% of GDP in 2019 before climbing again due to the COVID pandemic to 36.6% in 2020 and 41.4% in 2021. The debt is expected to reach 43.3% in 2022 and 42.8% in 2023 (IMF, October 2021). Three social programmes (RPJMN, PNPM Urban and PAMSIMAS) have been launched to ensure that the poorest strata of the population have access to healthcare and education. Other structural issues that remain to be tackled include a large public infrastructure gap, high labour informality and youth unemployment, and low educational attainment. Environmental protection also remains a major challenge. The government hopes to take advantage of the country's strategic location between Asia and the Pacific in the current unfavourable international context (weakening demand from China and falling commodity prices), and aims to be in the top six largest economies by 2030.

In 2022, the country’s most immediate challenge remains related to the economic, social and public health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although it has been decreasing over the last decade the unemployment rate has sharply increased from 5.2% in 2019 to 7.1% in 2020 and 6.6% in 2021. It should remains relatively high for the region in 2022 with 6% before being reduced to near pre-COVID level in 2023 with 5.6% (IMF, October 2021). The number of people working in vulnerable conditions has also increased in 2021. Indonesia has achieved enormous gains in poverty reduction, cutting the poverty rate by more than half since 1999, to approximately 9.8% of the population in 2020. The effect of the pandemic pushed it to 10.4% in 2021 (World Bank, 2022). Indeed, the country has still one of the fastest rising inequality rates in the East Asia region according to World Bank. In a few months, the pandemic reversed some hard-won advances in well-being, with poverty, malnutrition, and even hunger rising fast (OECD, 2021).

 
GDP Indicators 201920202021 (e)2022 (e)2023 (e)
GDP (billions USD) 1,120.041,059.64e1,150.251,247.351,356.34
GDP (constant prices, annual % change) 5.0-2.1e3.35.66.0
GDP per capita (USD) 4,1963,922e4,2254,5384,889
General government balance (in % of GDP) -2.2-4.7e-4.9-4.1-2.6
General government gross debt (in % of GDP) 30.636.6e41.443.342.8
Inflation rate (%) 2.82.0e1.63.33.3
Unemployment rate (% of the labor force) 5.27.16.66.05.6
Current Account (billions USD) -30.28-4.45-3.11-12.69-23.71
Current account (in % of GDP) -2.7-0.4-0.3-1.0-1.7

Font: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, 2016

Note: (e) Estimated data

 
Monetary indicators 20162017201820192020
Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) - Average annual exchange rate for 1 EUR 14,157.7915,115.1416,797.9415,896.2916,655.74

Font: World Bank, 2015

 

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Actualitzacions: September 2022

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