Iran: Visió econòmica i política
Iran's economy is characterized by its reliance on hydrocarbon resources, a vibrant agricultural sector, and a diverse service industry, with a significant state involvement in the manufacturing and financial services sectors. External shocks, such as sanctions and commodity price fluctuations, led to a decade-long stagnation that concluded in 2019/20. However, in recent years, Iran's economy has begun to recover, buoyed by a resurgence in services after the pandemic, heightened activity in the oil sector, and adaptive policy measures. Economic resilience has been demonstrated in response to sanctions, including exchange rate adjustments that enhanced the competitiveness of domestically produced goods in international markets. According to the World Bank, in fiscal year 2023/24, GDP growth accelerated to 5%, fuelled by strong performance in the oil sector and services. Oil GDP rose by 14.7%, supported by tighter global markets and higher export volumes aided by price discounts, while the non-oil sector expanded by 3.6%, driven mainly by services. GDP growth is expected to slow in the medium term, with FY 2024/25 growth easing due to tighter fiscal and monetary policies and the fading impact of the oil-driven rebound in FY 2023/24 amid weakening global demand. Non-oil growth will remain limited by ongoing sanctions, energy shortages, and economic uncertainty.
In FY 2023/24, government finances came under pressure as oil revenues fell short of targets as a result of U.S. sanctions. Although tax revenue met expectations, the budget deficit rose by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to an estimated 3.4% of GDP, further widened by substantial off-budget spending, including cash transfers under the Targeted Subsidies Program. The 2024/25 budget law reflects a more cautious fiscal approach, with restrained spending and conservative revenue forecasts. The general government debt-to-GDP ratio was estimated at 34.6% in 2024, up by 0.6% year-on-year, and is expected to increase marginally in 2025 (34.9% - data IMF). Inflation eased in the first five months of 2024/25, with headline and core inflation falling to 31.6% and 34.7% year-on-year in August—down 23.9 and 12.2 percentage points from April 2023 peaks. The decline was driven by lower global commodity prices, easing inflation expectations, and tighter monetary policy, including bank balance sheet limits, stricter reserve requirements, and higher interbank rates. Inflation is expected to decline further but remain elevated, straining low-income households. Tighter monetary policy may also slow real sector growth, as 90% of firms rely on bank financing (data from World Bank).
The labour market is recovering, but challenges remain as an ageing population and continued human capital flight further constrain economic growth and fiscal stability. Employment growth lowered the unemployment rate to 7.7% in FY 2023/24, but labour force participation remained low at 41.2%, with only 14.3% of working-age women active in the workforce, highlighting the need for more job creation. Moreover, poverty is expected to decline modestly, from 21.9% in 2022/23 to 20% in 2023/24 and 19% in 2024/25. Poor households are predominantly rural, uneducated, and female-headed, and have historically seen limited gains from economic growth. Lastly, the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 19,606 in 2024 by the IMF.
| Main Indicators | 2023 | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 372.82 | 434.24 | 463.75 | 498.49 | 532.56 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 5.0 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,347 | 5,013 | 5,300 | 5,640 | 5,965 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 34.0 | 34.6 | 34.9 | 35.2 | 35.3 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 40.7 | 31.7 | 29.5 | 27.5 | 25.8 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 8.1 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | 10.30 | 12.53 | 13.91 | 15.08 | 15.98 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021
Iran has a labour force of 28.3 million out of its 90.6 million population. Agriculture contributes 12.8% of the GDP, employing 14% of the active population (World Bank, latest data available). Only 10% of the land is arable and despite its importance to the economy and food security, the sector faces challenges such as water scarcity and limited access to modern technologies, impacting productivity and efficiency. The main crops are pistachios (the world's largest producer), wheat, rice, oranges, tea, and cotton. According to FAO, cereal production in 2024 was estimated at 22.4 million tonnes, approximately 10% above the average. The wheat harvest, finalised at the end of September 2024, was estimated at 14 million tonnes, also around 10% higher than the five-year average. Wheat import requirements for the 2024/25 marketing season (July to June) are forecast at 1.3 million tonnes, approximately 65% below the average, reflecting the ample domestic wheat production harvested in 2024.
The industrial sector employs 35% of the workforce and contributes 36.2% of the GDP (World Bank). Iran's industry is spearheaded by the hydrocarbon industry as the country is rich in mineral resources, mainly oil (3rd largest proven crude oil reserves in the world) and gas (2nd place in reserves in the world), copper, lead, zinc, etc. Iran’s average crude oil production reached 3.257 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, up from 2.884 million bpd in 2023. Alongside ramping up production, Iran has been actively seeking to expand its oil sales, particularly in Asian markets where demand remains robust. China remains a major buyer of Iranian crude, while other regional clients have also expressed interest in maintaining imports despite Western pressure. The textile industry is the second most important after the oil sector. Other major industries include sugar refining, food processing, petrochemicals, cement, and construction. Traditional handicrafts, such as carpet weaving and ceramics manufacturing, silk, and jewellery are also vital to the economy. The manufacturing sector as a whole is estimated to account for 19% of GDP.
The services sector contributes to 48.3% of the GDP and employs 51% of the workforce (World Bank). The expansion of urban areas has fostered the growth of the service sector. Significant service industries encompass public services, which encompass education, commerce, personal services, professional services, and tourism, which is growing despite U.S. sanctions: in 2024, 7 million foreign tourists visited Iran (+20% year-on-year – data Minister of Cultural Heritage, Tourism, and Handicrafts).
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 14.3 | 35.0 | 50.7 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 12.8 | 36.2 | 48.3 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | 0.2 | 7.1 | 3.8 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024
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Actualitzacions: May 2025
