Itàlia: Panorama econòmic
For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.
Italy's economy was heavily impacted by the global financial crisis and only emerged from recession in 2015; however, the country was one of the most affected by the COVID-19-induced crisis. After losing almost 9% in 2020, Italy’s GDP rebounded by an estimated 5.8% in 2021, on the back of private consumption and higher investments. The Italian economy is expected to embark on a stable and sustained expansion path this year (+4.2%), thanks to investments financed by EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), the easing of supply shortages, and an expansive budgetary policy. For 2023, the IMF forecasts a growth of 1.6% (2.3% according to the European Commission), a rate still sizeably higher than Italy’s long-term average.
The country’s primary budget (which excludes interest payments) is structurally positive; however, the interest cost on the government’s debt weighs heavily on Italy’s accounts, with the general government budget being structurally in deficit. This trend was exacerbated by the COVID-19-induced crisis (estimated at 4% of GDP in 2021 by the European Commission), which prompted a reduction in revenues from both direct and indirect taxes, as well as by increased government expenditure. Overall, the general government balance was negative by 7.1%. The global recovery and the phasing-out of COVID-related support measures should favour a gradual decrease of the deficit over the forecast horizon (3.8% this year and 3.3% in 2023 - IMF). The historically-high debt-to-GDP ratio spiked by more than 20pp in 2020, decreasing only marginally in 2021 (154.8%). Interest expenditure is set to steadily decline as a share of GDP in light of favourable financing conditions, benefiting the debt-to-GDP ratio which is expected to be around 150%. Being a net importer of energy, Italy’s inflation was pushed by rising global energy costs over the course of 2021, with headline inflation above 1.7%. A similar rate should be recorded this year (1.8%) before the index starts to decrease in 2023 (1.2% - IMF).
The unemployment rate, which has been on the rise since the global financial crisis, started dropping in recent years; however, it spiked in the aftermath of the global pandemic crisis, reaching 10.3% in 2021. The end of pandemic-relief measures (including the general dismissal ban and job retention schemes for workers in the manufacturing and construction sector) are expected to cause a marginal increase of the unemployment rate this year (11.6%), before falling to 11.4% by 2023 (9.2% as per the EU Commission estimates), amid a gradual rise in labour supply. Italy has high levels of youth unemployment (29.8% as of Sept. 2021 according to ISTAT), and regional inequalities between the highly industrialised and dynamic North and the poorer, rural southern “Mezzogiorno” areas are still high. Furthermore, Italy has to face a falling birth rate and a declining population. Italy’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 43,376 by the IMF in 2021, just below the EU-27 average (Eurostat).
GDP Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 (e) | 2023 (e) | 2024 (e) |
GDP (billions USD) | 1.00 | 2.00e | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
GDP (constant prices, annual % change) | -9.0 | 6.6e | 3.2 | -0.2 | 1.3 |
GDP per capita (USD) | 31e | 35e | 33 | 33 | 34 |
General government balance (in % of GDP) | -6.0 | -5.1 | -5.7 | -3.6 | -3.6 |
General government gross debt (in % of GDP) | 155.3 | 150.9 | 147.2 | 147.1 | 146.1 |
Inflation rate (%) | -0.1 | 1.9 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 |
Unemployment rate (% of the labor force) | 9.3 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 9.3 |
Current Account (billions USD) | 70.88 | 51.33 | -3.30 | 5.64 | 17.70 |
Current account (in % of GDP) | 3.7 | 2.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
Font: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, 2016
Note: (e) Estimated data
Monetary indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
American Dollar (USD) - Average annual exchange rate for 1 EUR | 1.06 | 1.13 | 1.18 | 1.12 | 1.14 |
Font: World Bank, 2015
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Actualitzacions: January 2023