Kenya: Visió econòmica i política
Kenya has enjoyed a decade of strong economic growth, allowing the nation to access the status of a middle-income country. It has one of the fastest-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, and growth was only partially affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with GDP contracting by a mere 0.3%. The country returned to its growth path in 2021 (7.5%), 2022 (4.8%), and 2023 (5.6%, as per the IMF estimates). Following the strong cyclical rebound in 2023, the growth rate decelerated to 4.7% in 2024 as severe floods, subdued business sentiment following the mid-2024 protests, and reduced public spending weighed on the country's economy. The projected real GDP growth for 2025 and 2026 is around 5%, driven by a rebound in private sector activity, despite the government's implementation of spending cuts.
Regarding public finances, the fiscal deficit is projected to be 4.3% of GDP in 2025/26, down from 4.9% in 2024/25, according to the ministry's Budget Policy. Total spending is expected to rise to KES 4.34 trillion (USD 34 billion) in 2025/26, up from KES 3.95 trillion in the year ending in June. The government plans to finance the deficit through net external financing of KES 146.8 billion and net domestic financing of KES 684.2 billion. Persistent revenue collection underperformance and significant spending pressures have led to a rise in government debt in recent years; however, the IMF estimated that the debt-to-GDP ratio decreased to 69.9% in 2024 from 73.1% one year earlier, mainly due to a stronger shilling in the second half of FY24. The government plans to raise approximately USD 5 billion (nearly 4% of GDP) through official and commercial borrowing in FY25, with half of this amount sourced from multilateral creditors, including the final USD 0.9 billion disbursement from the IMF programme ending in April 2025 (Fitch Ratings). The government continues to accumulate pending bills, with domestic arrears rising to KES 528.4 billion (3% of GDP) by the end of September 2024, up from KES 516.3 billion at the end of June. Fitch projects the revenue/GDP ratio will increase in FY25-FY26, averaging 17.7%, though still below the government's initial target of 18.4%. Meanwhile, the inflation rate decreased from 7.7% in 2023 to around 5.1% last year and Kenya's central bank reduced its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% in December 2024, citing room for looser policy to support economic growth as inflation remained under control. Over the forecast period, inflation is expected to remain relatively stable.
The unemployment rate was estimated at 5.7% in 2024 (World Bank). Kenya’s total workforce is projected to increase by 40.6% to 40.4 million by 2035; as data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) indicate the country will add 11.7 million to the job market by 2035, this may cause mounting unemployment in an economy that is not generating adequate jobs for school leavers and college graduates. Overall, the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 7,157 in 2024 by the IMF and the international poverty rate (USD 2.15) is estimated to have decreased from 35.8% in 2022 to 34.7% in 2023 (World Bank). However, economic growth has not been sufficiently inclusive, and the connection between growth and poverty reduction has weakened. Adverse climate shocks are reducing agricultural productivity, particularly in arid and semi-arid counties. Well-paying jobs in services are more accessible to skilled workers, while poorer and low-skilled workers face difficulties accessing productive employment. The poverty ratio stands at 38.6%, above the pre-pandemic level as poor and rural households have not participated as much in Kenya’s economic recovery. The recent deceleration in poverty reduction, coupled with unequal access to education and other opportunities, weak job creation, and consistently low productivity growth, underscores the necessity for an inclusive growth strategy.
| Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 108.75 | 116.32 | 116.66 | 118.57 | 124.60 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 5.6 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 2,110 | 2,218 | 2,187 | 2,185 | 2,258 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 73.1 | 69.9 | 72.4 | 71.9 | 70.2 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 7.7 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -4.32 | -4.75 | -4.79 | -4.69 | -4.97 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -4.0 | -4.1 | -4.1 | -4.0 | -4.0 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021
Kenya is particularly advanced in the sector of services and has been the source of innovations adopted throughout the continent (for example, it was the first country to sell government bonds through mobile phones). The country is the third-largest producer of tea and the leading exporter by volume in the world. It is also the eighth-largest producer of dry beans and ranks among the top 20 coffee exporters (FAO). The primary sector represents 21.8% of Kenyan GDP and employs 32.3% of the workforce (World Bank, latest data available), making agriculture and horticulture the two largest sectors of the national economy. Coffee, wheat, sugarcane, fruit, and vegetables are among the main crops, and dairy products, beef, fish, pork, poultry, and eggs are the main animal products. The country exports tea, coffee, cut flowers, and vegetables. According to data from the Central Bank, the agricultural sector grew by 6.1%, 4.8%, and 4.2% in the first three quarters of 2024, respectively.
Industry accounts for 16.9% of the GDP and employs only 15.6% of the workforce. Although the country has little in terms of mineral resources, some high-value minerals, such as titanium, have considerable potential. In addition, Kenya could become an oil and gas producer in the years to come, as new oil deposits (with a potential of 750 million barrels) were found following the drilling of exploration wells in Turkana County (North-West). Manufacturing, estimated to account for 8% of GDP, with the processing of agricultural products as the main subsector, is estimated to have grown by 1.3% in the first quarter of 2024 (marking the slowest pace since 2008), accelerated to 3.2% in the second quarter, and then slowed to 2.3% in the third (Central Bank data).
The services sector contributes to 55.4% of the GDP and employs 52.2% of the workforce. Tourism, a core sector of the Kenyan economy, has been hit by several terrorist attacks carried out by the Al-Shabab group since 2013. According to a performance update by the Kenya Tourism Board, the total number of arrivals in Kenya surged to 2.4 million in 2024, marking a 15% increase from 2023 and recording a substantial increase in earnings, which rose by 19.8% to KES 452.2 billion (approximately USD 3.49 billion), up from USD 2.92 billion one year earlier. The IT and communications sectors are expanding rapidly, and the construction industry is very dynamic. The growth pace of transport, medicine, education, and financial services makes Kenya a regional hub. Furthermore, Mombasa is the largest port in East Africa. In the banking sector, the 14 largest banks—accounting for 87% of total sector assets—each had core capital exceeding KES 10 billion as of the end of Q3 2024. Their strong domestic and regional franchises continue to underpin solid financial profile metrics (data Fitch Ratings).
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 32.3 | 15.6 | 52.2 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 21.8 | 16.9 | 55.4 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | 6.5 | 1.9 | 6.8 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024
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Actualitzacions: May 2025
