El context econòmic de Líban

Economic Indicators

After years of neglect, corruption, financial mismanagement and the war next door in Syria, the Lebanese economy entered a full-blown crisis in 2019, sparking mass protests that demanded sweeping reforms. The economic crisis deteriorated further since, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, rising public debt, a sovereign default, a currency collapse and an explosion at the port of Beirut. The traditional engines of growth in Lebanon (real estate, construction and tourism) have stalled and the banking sector, which until then had been praised for its resilience, has collapsed. Lebanon's real GDP shrank by 5.7% in 2024, representing a USD 4.2 billion loss in consumption and net exports, due to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. This brought the total GDP decline since 2019 to over 38%, according to the World Bank. The contraction reflects the impact of displacement, destruction, and reduced private consumption after the conflict escalated in mid-September. Without the conflict, GDP could have grown by 0.9% in 2024.

In 2024, Lebanon's fiscal stance was initially projected to improve, building on the modest gains of 2023. The country estimated a 0.5% fiscal surplus for 2023, driven by increased revenues from exchange rate corrections and expenditure restraints. The 2024 government budget, ratified in February, projected a balanced fiscal position. However, with the September 2024 conflict escalation, fiscal projections for 2024 have worsened. Before the conflict, a small fiscal surplus of 0.2% was expected, but this declined due to reduced revenues and increased emergency expenditures. Revenues were projected to reach 15% of GDP, up from 13.7% in 2023, while expenditures were expected to rise to 14.8% of GDP. The conflict’s impact on fiscal performance, particularly in Q4, significantly altered these projections. Lebanon’s debt-to-GDP ratio was initially forecast to decrease to 141.9% in 2024, but this reduction does not reflect improved debt dynamics. The expected decline in nominal GDP due to the conflict escalation likely increased Lebanon's debt-to-GDP ratio. With ongoing sovereign default, Lebanon's debt remains unsustainable, and debt dynamics show no improvement. Debt restructuring is crucial to achieve significant debt reduction, restore fiscal space, and regain market access to address the compounded challenges, especially those worsened by the conflict. In February 2025, the Lebanese government announced plans to negotiate a new program with the International Monetary Fund to address public debt and financial default. This initiative aims to implement necessary reforms and restructure the banking sector to revitalize the economy. While the exchange rate has stabilized since August 2023, this stability is fragile and unsustainable, relying on fiscal restraint and spending cuts in public institutions rather than a solid monetary framework. This approach has temporarily reduced currency circulation but delayed essential investments for recovery. Rising post-conflict funding needs could deplete foreign reserves or increase currency supply, undermining exchange rate stability and fueling inflation, exposing the current strategy's unsustainability.

The country faces many humanitarian and social issues in addition to macroeconomic and political challenges. The massive influx of Syrian refugees (25% of the country's population) has shaken the country's demographic balance and labour market and is putting pressure on the costs of rent, infrastructure and supply of public services such as water and electricity. The conflict escalation starting in September 2024 has resulted in thousands of casualties, mass displacement, and unprecedented destruction. By mid-November 2024, the Ministry of Public Health reported over 3,500 deaths and 14,500 injuries. More than 1.2 million people, or a quarter of Lebanon’s population, have been displaced, creating one of the largest displacements in the country's history and intensifying urgent humanitarian needs. Since 2019, high inflation and a depreciating currency have drastically reduced purchasing power, increasing food insecurity and altering consumption patterns. Income inequality has deepened, with wealthier households often protected by dollarized incomes, while poorer families cut back on food, and rely on savings, borrowing, and external aid. The 2024 Lebanon Poverty and Equity Assessment revealed that monetary poverty has tripled, rising from 11% in 2012 to 33% in 2022 in regions like Akkar, Beirut, Bekaa, North Lebanon, and most of Mount Lebanon.

Main Sectors of Industry

Lebanon has fertile lands and benefits from a temperate climate and abundant water resources. However, the agricultural sector is underdeveloped and only contributes 1.2% of the GDP and 3.4% of employment (World Bank, latest data available). Key agricultural products include fruits (mainly apples, oranges, bananas and grapes, but also olives) which account for around 30% of total agricultural production, and vegetables (such as potatoes, tomatoes and maize) which account for more than 60% of total production; whereas coffee is the main export product. According to the latest figures from FAO, winter cereal production in 2024 was estimated at 120,000 tonnes, approximately 34% below the five-year average due to adverse weather conditions. Planting of 2025 winter cereals was delayed to December 2024 due to conflict limiting field access. Wheat imports for 2024/25 (July/June) are forecast at 670,000 tonnes, 4% above average, with fulfilment depending on foreign currency availability. The ongoing economic crisis will likely keep straining agriculture in 2025. Since the 2019 financial collapse, limited credit forces farmers to pay expenses in cash, mostly in USD. Input costs for seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel remain vulnerable to exchange rates and price fluctuations, as they rely heavily on imports.

Industry, which accounted for 12.5% of GDP in 2019, dropped to 6.6% in 2020 due to the COVID-related crisis and stood at just 2.4% in 2022, one of the lowest ratios in the world. It employs 20.3% of the workforce (World Bank, latest data available) and is dominated by the manufacturing of agricultural products, metals, minerals, furniture and other manufactured goods. The primary manufacturing sub-sectors comprise food industries, constituting approximately 19% of the total number of firms, followed by plastic and chemicals at 14%, paper and packaging as well as minerals at 11% (Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies).

Services are the dominant sector of the Lebanese economy, representing 88.6% of the country's GDP and employing 76.2% of the workforce. The banking sector was traditionally the mainstay of the economy, but it is going through a major crisis. Banking activity, even when it was sustained and lucrative, did not constitute real support for the private sector since most of the liquidity coming from banks is used to finance public debt. Tourism accounts for almost 20% of GDP and employs around 18% of the active population. The sector currently suffers from the serious economic and political crisis that the country is going through: foreign tourist arrivals fell sharply in 2024 to 1,131,100, down 32.1% from 2023 and 22.8% from 2022, according to Tourism Ministry data.

 

Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector	Agriculture	Industry	Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment)	3.4	20.3	76.2
Value Added (in % of GDP)	1.2	2.4	88.6
Value Added (Annual % Change)	-0.8	-0.6	-0.6

Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.

 

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Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}

Score:

51,4/100

World Rank:

154

Regional Rank:

12

Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation

 

 

Sources of General Economic Information

Ministries

Ministry of Economy and Trade
Ministry of Energy and Water

Statistical Office

Central Administration of Statistics

Central Bank

Central Bank of Lebanon

Stock Exchange

Beirut Stock Exchange

Economic Portals

An Nahar: the country's most important paper