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Panorama econòmic

Economic indicators

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

In recent years, the Moroccan economy has been characterised by macro-economic stability and low levels of inflation, relying mostly on exports, a boom in private investment and tourism. However, the COVID-19 shock has pushed the Moroccan economy into its first recession since 1995. The country’s economy rebounded in 2021 when it grew an estimated 5.7% thanks to a base effect and an extraordinary performance of the agricultural sector, rather than by a broad-based acceleration of economic activity (the service sector was still weak, pulled by the underperformance of Morocco’s relatively large tourism industry). GDP is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level by 2022, with the IMF forecasting growth of 3.1% this year and 3.7% in 2023, albeit this baseline scenario is subject to high uncertainty especially due to the ongoing global sanitary crisis, which prompted the closure of the country’s borders at the end of 2021.

Current expenditure on health and social protection saw a sharp increase in order to counterbalance the effects of the pandemic, thus halting the fiscal consolidation efforts undertaken by the national government in recent years. The budget deficit was estimated at 5.6% in 2021, and it is projected to decrease marginally to 5.3% this year and 4.9% in 2023, respectively, as a result of the GDP rebound. Similarly, the debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 75.8% in 2021 (from a pre-pandemic level of 65.1%), and is expected to remain substantially stable around 76.6% over the forecast horizon (IMF). In order to support enterprises and individuals recovering from the impact of the coronavirus, the government set up a strategic investment fund worth USD 4.8 billion, as well as other measures to help people working in the informal sector, the issuance of partial guarantees to banks for loans granted to firms, a reduction in the Central Bank’s benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points (to a historically low 1.5%), and direct injections of liquidity into the financial system. Furthermore, the country secured good access to external finance, with large multilateral disbursements and two successful sovereign bond sales that reinforced foreign reserves. Inflation picked up to 1.4% in 2021 amid rising global energy prices and should decrease only slightly in 2022 before accelerating again the following year (1.2% and 1.6% - IMF).

Albeit its high levels, the unemployment rate had been declining in recent years; however, the spread of the pandemic prompted a surge, with unemployment estimated at 12% at the end of 2021 (from 10.2% before the pandemic), despite the government’s effort to support the economy. In a very unstable global context, the IMF forecasts the unemployment rate to gradually decrease to 11.5% this year and 11% in 2023. According to the Moroccan Higher Planning Commission, unemployment particularly affects the youth (15-24 years of age – at 26%) and recent graduates. The rate of poverty remains one of the highest in the Mediterranean region, with 15% of the population living under the poverty line.

 
GDP Indicators 201920202021 (e)2022 (e)2023 (e)
GDP (billions USD) 119.87e114.60e126.04132.65140.72
GDP (constant prices, annual % change) 2.6e-6.3e5.73.13.7
GDP per capita (USD) 3,368e3,188e3,4713,6173,801
General government balance (in % of GDP) -3.8-5.3e-5.6-5.3-4.9
General government gross debt (in % of GDP) 65.175.4e75.876.676.6
Inflation rate (%) 0.20.6e1.41.21.6
Unemployment rate (% of the labor force) 10.2e12.2e12.011.511.0
Current Account (billions USD) -4.41-1.68e-3.87-4.32-5.38
Current account (in % of GDP) -3.7-1.5e-3.1-3.3-3.8

Font: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, 2016

Note: (e) Estimated data

 
Monetary indicators 20162017201820192020
Moroccan Dirham (MAD) - Average annual exchange rate for 1 EUR 10.4310.9511.0710.7910.85

Font: World Bank, 2015

 

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