Panorama econòmic

Economic indicators

In recent years, the Moroccan economy has been characterised by macroeconomic stability and low levels of inflation, relying mostly on exports, a boom in private investment, and tourism. However, the COVID-19 shock has pushed the Moroccan economy into its first recession since 1995. The country’s GDP rebounded in 2021 but showed modest growth in 2022: based on the most recent projections from the IMF, the economy is estimated to have grown by 2.4% in 2023. This growth is fueled by a partial rebound in agricultural output, net exports, and services (particularly tourism). The recovery is anticipated to strengthen in the medium term, with real GDP growth forecasted to reach 3.6% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, as domestic demand gradually rebounds from recent shocks. Reconstruction efforts and new policy incentives are set to enhance investment, thereby supporting income and consumption, while the resurgence of agricultural production should contribute to the growth of rural employment.

The fiscal impact of the health and social protection reform and postponement of the liquefied petroleum gas and flour subsidy reform slowed the consolidation of the budget deficit, which was estimated at 5% of GDP in 2023. Modest revenue growth (+0.9% year-on-year through September) has been sustained by increased tax collections. However, government spending has experienced upward pressures (+7.2% year-on-year) due to the impact of the drought on food supply and high inflation. While gas subsidies were lower than budgeted, there were increases in subsidies for food and farmers, along with accelerated investment in water infrastructures (Fitch Ratings). The deficit is expected to decrease over the forecast horizon, to 4.4% this year and 3.8% in 2025 (IMF), with the debt-to-GDP ratio following a similar trend (from 69.7% in 2023 to 68.7% by 2025). After peaking in February, inflation averaged 6.3% in 2023, as energy prices declined and agriculture output improved. The projection indicates a gradual decrease to 3.5% in 2024 (IMF), influenced by reduced energy and food prices and the impact of rising interest rates. Key risks include prolonged droughts affecting agricultural production, a more pronounced slowdown in crucial European markets, and a potential further increase in commodity prices.

Albeit its high levels, the unemployment rate has been declining in recent years and averaged 12% in 2023. For 2024 and 2025, the IMF expects it to decrease to 11.7% and 11.6%, respectively. According to the Moroccan Higher Planning Commission, unemployment particularly affects the youth (15-24 years of age – at 38.2% as of June 2023 – latest data available), recent graduates, and women (19.8% each). The rate of poverty remains one of the highest in the Mediterranean region, with almost one-fifth of the population living near the poverty line. Finally, the GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 10,408 in 2023 by the IMF.

Vols fer algun comentari sobre aquest contingut? Escriu-nos.