Mèxic: Visió econòmica i política
Mexico is among the world's 15 largest economies and is the second-largest economy in Latin America. The country is highly dependent on the United States, its main trading partner and destination of nearly 80% of its exports. Over the past three decades, Mexico's growth, inclusion, and poverty reduction have lagged behind similar countries. From 1980 to 2022, the economy grew at an average rate of just over 2% annually, hindering progress in narrowing the gap with high-income economies. However, in 2023, the economy grew by 3.2%, while in 2024 growth slowed to 1.5% due to binding capacity constraints and restrictive monetary policy, reflecting a moderation after the post-pandemic rebound. Growth is expected to slow further in 2025 (to 1.4%) due to the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and a slowdown in the U.S. Over the medium term, growth is projected to converge to a potential rate of around 2% (IMF).
The fiscal position was highly procyclical in 2024. Under the authorities’ plans, the overall deficit was expected to increase to 5.9% of GDP, representing a fiscal impulse of 2.2% of GDP. While revenues slightly exceeded expectations, mainly due to higher oil prices, spending on pensions and major infrastructure projects was also higher. Additional support for Pemex or unexpected infrastructure expenditures towards the end of the year brought the deficit to around 6.2%. With gross public sector debt estimated at 57.7% of GDP by the end of 2024, Mexico still has some fiscal space to address temporary shocks. As per the government budget, a deficit of 3.2% of GDP is estimated for 2025, along with a primary budget surplus of 0.6% of GDP, whereas the debt-to-GDP ratio should remain stable. The inflation rate decelerated to 4.2% in December 2024, the lowest rate since February 2021. It is expected to return to the 3% target by the end of 2025; however, risks to inflation remain on the upside, mainly from more persistent services inflation, higher commodity prices, or weather-related shocks (IMF).
As of December 2024, Mexico's unemployment rate dropped to 2.4% of the economically active population. Informal workers totalled 31.8 million, with an informality rate of 53.7%. The data from INEGI reveals a persistent gender gap, as the female labour force participation rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 46% of the working-age population, while the male rate dropped by 0.6%. Mexico's official multidimensional poverty rate, which includes income poverty and six indicators of social deprivation, decreased from 43.2% in 2016 to 36.3% in 2022, lifting 5.4 million people out of poverty. The World Bank projects that poverty will continue to decline slowly through 2026. Finally, the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 24,971 in 2024 by the IMF.
| Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 1,788.82 | 1,848.13 | 1,817.82 | 1,905.28 | 1,994.12 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 3.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 13,641 | 13,972 | 13,630 | 14,175 | 14,729 |
| General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | -4.5 | -6.2 | -3.6 | -2.7 | -2.7 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 53.1 | 57.7 | 57.9 | 57.8 | 57.9 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 5.5 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -5.48 | -13.70 | -15.50 | -19.48 | -20.32 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -0.3 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021
Mexico's economy is diversified, including hi-tech industries, oil production, mineral exploitation, and manufacturing. According to the latest data from the World Bank, agriculture accounts for 3.8% of Mexico’s GDP and employs 12% of the country’s active population. The country is the world's seventh agricultural power and ranks among the world's largest producers of coffee, sugar, corn, oranges, avocados and limes. Cattle farming and fishing are also important activities in the food industry. Moreover, Mexico is the world's fourth-largest producer of beer and its largest exporter. In 2024, total agricultural production saw a general decline of 2.1% compared to 2023—a loss of 5.99 million tons, according to the Grupo de Consultores de Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA). In the same year, agricultural and livestock exports reached USD 23.3 billion (+7.1% y-o-y – data INEGI).
The industrial sector employs one-fifth of the Mexican workforce and represents 31.6% of GDP, according to the World Bank. Mexico is among the world's leading producers of many minerals, including silver, fluorite, zinc and mercury. Moreover, oil and gas reserves are one of the country’s most precious possessions. The aerospace sector has grown sharply, thanks to the development of a cluster in Queretaro and the presence of nearly 190 companies, including Bombardier, Goodrich, the Safran group and Honeywell, which together employ 30,000 people. Mexico is also one of the world's ten largest car producers and due to significant real estate investments, the construction sector is dynamic. The manufacturing sector alone is estimated to account for 20% of GDP. Mexico's industrial production grew by 0.2% in 2024, despite a 4.3% drop in mining, according to INEGI. Growth was driven by construction (+2.7%), energy and utilities (+1.6%), and manufacturing (+0.3%).
The service sector constitutes 58.6% of GDP and employs 63% of the workforce. Although the services sector was hit the hardest during the pandemic, it showed a significant recovery in the past couple of years. The hi-tech, information, and software development sectors are experiencing real momentum, driven by the quality of the workforce, clusters and low operating costs that favour the creation of call centres. Medical services and tourism have been growing steadily for the past few years, mainly due to lower service costs than in Western countries. Tourism is a vital sector for the Mexican economy: over 40 million tourists visited Mexico in the first 11 months of 2024. However, the real record-breaker was foreign visitor spending, which reached USD 26.8 billion from January to November, marking a 5.67% increase from the same period in 2023 (data INEGI).
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 12.0 | 25.0 | 63.0 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 3.8 | 31.6 | 58.6 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | -1.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024
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Actualitzacions: February 2025
