Panorama econòmic

Economic indicators

Mozambique saw robust economic growth before 2016, averaging over 7% annually from 2000 to 2015. However, between 2016 and 2021, several shocks—such as the hidden debt crisis, cyclones, COVID-19, and conflict in the north—severely affected economic activity and reversed poverty reduction efforts. The economy continues to rely heavily on natural resources, with extractive industries driving growth. According to the IMF, overall growth in 2024 was 1.9%, from 5.4% one year earlier, due to a weaker contribution of the extractives sector and a slowdown in Q4 amid widespread social unrest triggered by the results of October's elections. Growth is projected to recover to 3.0% in 2025 as social conditions stabilize and economic activity, particularly in services, gains momentum. However, elevated uncertainty, tighter fiscal policies, and foreign exchange shortages pose risks to the forecast (IMF).

Fitch estimates that the general government deficit widened to 6.5% of GDP in 2024. Disruptions to economic activity following the elections led to a revenue shortfall, estimated by the government at 3% of GDP, prompting some spending reductions. The change in government has delayed the 2025 budget production. Addressing the large public sector wage bill amid social unrest remains a significant challenge for the new administration. A more stable domestic environment is expected to support some revenue recovery in 2025 while financing constraints on spending are projected to reduce the deficit to 4.4%. Given higher deficits, Fitch now anticipates a slower reduction in general government debt/GDP compared to previous projections. The debt is still expected to decrease to 93.8% of GDP in 2024 (compared to a peer median of 68.2%), mainly due to an out-of-court settlement of liabilities from the "hidden-debt scandal." Debt/GDP at the end of 2026 is now forecasted at 93.4%. Inflation pressures have increased but remain manageable. The outlook faces significant downside risks, including extreme climate events, a slower pace or reversal of fiscal reforms due to the upcoming presidential elections, and a potential deterioration of the security situation in the north. A worsening fiscal stance could raise the risk of debt refinancing and the rollover of domestic debt. The Bank of Mozambique began a loosening cycle in January 2024, cutting the policy rate by 500bps to 12.25%. In late January 2025, it also reduced reserve requirements on local currency deposits from 39% to 29%. Despite supply chain disruptions and rising food prices due to social unrest, inflation stayed below the 5% target (IMF).

The unemployment rate was estimated at 3.8% in 2023 according to the World Bank (modelled ILO estimate). Frequent natural disasters hinder economic activity and food security, worsening poverty, which was projected at 74.7% in 2023 based on the USD 2.15 poverty line. High underemployment and inequality pose major challenges to economic inclusion, while the informal sector, which includes over 80% of the labour force, dominates the job market, leaving many workers without social protection (World Bank). The IMF estimated the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) to be only USD 1,729 in 2024.

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