Panorama econòmic

Economic indicators

Preliminary national account figures indicate a 0.6% annual growth in mainland Norway's GDP from 2023 to 2024, adjusted for constant prices. The mainland economy saw nearly zero growth in 2023, but activity has picked up slightly in 2024. However, a carry-over effect from 2022 results in annual growth similar to the previous two years. Demand from central and local governments, strong petroleum investment, and growth in mainland exports have supported the mainland economy. Conversely, a decline in investment in residential and commercial buildings, alongside modest growth in private consumption, has exerted a counteracting effect. The IMF forecasts growth of 1.8% this year and 1.7% in 2026, driven by a consumer-led recovery in consumption, strong performance in the oil and gas sector, and fiscal stimulus.

Norway’s public finances are sound. The government's gross debt did not expand substantially in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis unlike in the rest of Europe, despite public monetary support and a comprehensive loan programme to the banks. The surge in energy prices during 2022-2023 further bolstered the sovereign’s fiscal and external buffers. Norway’s internationally comparable budget surplus, including petroleum revenue, stood at 16.3% of GDP in 2023, with expectations to remain around 14% in 2024 and 2025. Norges Bank estimated the structural non-oil budget deficit to be 10.7% of mainland trend GDP in 2024, driven by fiscal-easing measures equivalent to 1 percentage point of mainland GDP. This figure excludes Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) transfers (whose total assets were estimated at NOK 19,742 billion as of 31 December 2024). Norway’s fiscal rule targets a 3% annual transfer from the GPFG throughout the economic cycle, reflecting the fund's expected long-term real return.  In 2024, the debt-to-GDP ratio was estimated at 42.7%, down from 44% one year earlier. The ratio is expected to remain stable over the forecast horizon (IMF). The Norwegian economy has experienced unusually high inflation in recent years, but it slowed significantly in 2024. Inflation is estimated to have increased by 3.5% from 2023 to 2024, a decrease from 4.2% the previous year (official governmental figures).

Official estimates suggest that accrued annual wage growth reached 5.7% in 2024. This increase slightly outpaced the rise in the consumer price index, resulting in real wage growth for the first time since 2021. The unemployment rate was estimated at 4.3% in 2024, up from 3.6% one year earlier, and is expected to stabilize around 3.8% in the medium term. Overall, Norway is a rich country, with one of the highest GDP per capita in the world (USD 103,446 PPP in 2024 by the IMF). The nation also scores at the top of the United Nations Human Development Index ranking.

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