Noruega: Visió econòmica i política
Preliminary national account figures indicate a 1.7% annual growth in mainland Norway's GDP from 2024 to 2025, adjusted for constant prices. The mainland economy grew by just 0.6% in 2024, but activity picked up markedly in 2025. Mainland GDP rose a further 0.3% in the second quarter of 2026. Demand from central and local governments, strong petroleum investment, and growth in mainland exports have supported the mainland economy. Conversely, a decline in investment in residential and commercial buildings, alongside modest growth in private consumption, has exerted a counteracting effect. The IMF forecasts growth of 1.8% this year and 1.7% in 2026, driven by a consumer-led recovery in consumption, strong performance in the oil and gas sector, and fiscal stimulus.
Norway’s public finances are sound. The government's gross debt did not expand substantially in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis unlike in the rest of Europe, despite public monetary support and a comprehensive loan programme to the banks. The surge in energy prices during 2022-2023 further bolstered the sovereign’s fiscal and external buffers. Norway’s internationally comparable budget surplus, including petroleum revenue, still stood at more than 10% of GDP in 2025, having fallen by NOK 114 billion from the previous year. The Ministry of Finance estimated the structural non-oil budget deficit to be 12.6% of mainland trend GDP in 2025, rising to 13.1% in 2026, a fiscal easing equivalent to 0.4 percentage points of mainland GDP. This figure excludes Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) transfers (whose total assets were estimated at NOK 21,268 billion as of 31 December 2025). Norway’s fiscal rule targets a 3% annual transfer from the GPFG throughout the economic cycle, reflecting the fund's expected long-term real return. In 2024, the debt-to-GDP ratio was estimated at 42.7%, down from 44% one year earlier. The ratio is expected to remain stable over the forecast horizon (IMF). The Norwegian economy has experienced unusually high inflation in recent years, but it slowed significantly in 2024. Inflation is estimated to have increased by 3.0% from 2024 to 2025, a decrease from 3.5% the previous year, and stood at 3.3% in the twelve months to August 2026 (official governmental figures).
Official estimates suggest that accrued annual wage growth reached 4.5% in 2025. This increase again outpaced the rise in the consumer price index, resulting in a further year of real wage growth. The unemployment rate was estimated at 4.5% in 2025, up from 4.0% one year earlier, and stood unchanged at 4.5% in July 2026. Overall, Norway is a rich country, with one of the highest GDP per capita in the world (USD 104,044 PPP in 2025 by the World Bank). The nation also scores at the top of the United Nations Human Development Index ranking.
| Main Indicators | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 530.76 | 599.41 | 604.14 | 605.42 | 607.52 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 94,468 | 105,877 | 105,903 | 105,321 | 104,884 |
| General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | 9.3 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 7.2 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 45.0 | 42.9 | 39.4 | 35.9 | 32.5 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | 74.66 | 85.64 | 82.41 | 77.82 | 74.43 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | 14.1 | 14.3 | 13.6 | 12.9 | 12.3 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, Latest data available
Agriculture accounts for 1.6% of Norway’s GDP and employs 2.5% of the workforce (World Bank, latest data available). Fishing is an important activity as Norway is the world's second-biggest seafood exporter after China. The country has 36,790 agricultural holdings (Statistics Norway) and is more than self-sufficient in animal products, livestock being one of the major agricultural subsectors. However, Norway remains dependent on imports for cereal crops (soybeans, wheat, rapeseed and bananas) and agricultural subsidies are very significant. About 33.4% of Norway’s total land area is covered by forests (12.6 million ha). According to the Norwegian Seafood Council, Norway exported NOK 181.5 billion worth of seafood in 2025, the highest level ever recorded, marking an increase of NOK 6.4 billion, or 4%, from the previous year. The total export volume reached 2.8 million metric tons.
Industry employs 18% of the workforce and represents 34.5% of GDP. Norway’s economy depends on its natural resources and energy sources (oil, gas, hydraulic energy, forests and minerals). Oil rents, which have once dominated the economy, now provide around 5% of GDP, well below its peak level in 2000. Nevertheless, the oil and gas sector is Norway's largest measured in terms of value-added, government revenues, investments and export value. The government's total net cash flow from the petroleum industry was NOK 664 billion in 2025, with NOK 686 billion estimated for 2026 (Norskpetroleum). Overall, the “extraction and related services” sector accounts for 83.2% of total industrial output in 2024 (Statistics Norway). Manufacturing accounts for only 6% of GDP. Shipbuilding, metals, wood pulp and paper, the chemical industry, machinery and electrical equipment make up Norway’s main manufacturing industries. Norway also has one of the largest and most modern fleets in the world.
The Norwegian service sector is highly developed; it employs over 79% of the population and accounts for half of the GDP. The tourism sector is an important source of income: according to Statistics Norway, 2025 was a record year for Norwegian accommodation establishments, with an all-time high of 40.6 million guest nights, up 5.2% from 2024. As per the Norwegian banking sector, it is comprised of 124 banks of which 106 are local banks and 18 are branches of foreign banks. The market share of the subsidiaries and branches of foreign banks were 23% and 36% in the retail and domestic corporate markets, respectively (European Banking Federation, latest data available).
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 2.5 | 17.8 | 79.7 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 1.6 | 34.5 | 55.0 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | 4.6 | 0.0 | 1.3 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in a series of countries. It examines separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024
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Actualitzacions: October 2026
