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Panorama econòmic

Economic indicators

The Netherlands is the sixth-largest economic power in the Eurozone and the fifth-largest exporter of goods. The country is very open to trade and consequently to the global economic conjuncture. Following strong growth in the post-pandemic years (+4.3% in 2022), the Dutch economy cooled down in 2023, with a GDP increase limited to 0.6% (IMF) amid a decline in export volumes and in actual consumption spending as households adjusted to the higher price levels. Throughout 2024 and 2025, growth should gradually accelerate thanks to a further decrease in inflation, combined with robust wage growth. With demand from key trading partners stabilizing, the contribution from net trade is also predicted to improve. Additionally, increased public consumption and investment are anticipated to contribute to overall growth. On the downside, tightening financial conditions and persistent labor shortages are likely to exert pressure on business investment growth in the coming years. Overall, the annual growth forecast is 1.2% for 2024 and 1.5% for 2025 (IMF).

In recent years the government’s fiscal policy has been expansionary; nevertheless, the Dutch public finances remained sound, recording budget surpluses. The trend inverted as a consequence of the fiscal measures taken to contain the Covid-19-induced crisis and then the effects of high inflation prompted by the conflict in Ukraine. In 2023, the general government deficit reached 1.9% of GDP driven by a package of measures to mitigate the impact of high energy prices (estimated at around 1% of GDP), partly counterbalanced by higher-than-expected revenue from corporate income tax, as well as lower public investment. The deficit is projected to hover around 2.5% of GDP in the forecast horizon, driven by an increased defence budget, and growing expenditure on interest, social benefits, and public investments. Despite the increase in expenditure, continued high nominal GDP growth contributed to a reduction in the government debt-to-GDP ratio, from 50.1% in 2022 to 49.5% in 2023. The IMF expects the ratio to further decline to 48.7% by 2025. After peaking in 2022, inflation came down sharply to 4.2% in 2023, thanks to a significant drop in energy prices. Due to the continued strength of wage growth and a robust labor market, HICP inflation, excluding energy and food, should gradually decrease closer to the ECB’s target over the forecast horizon (around 2.2% by 2025).

The Netherlands presents a very high income per capita, which is distributed in a relatively equal manner. The GDP per capita is above the EU average and was estimated at USD 73,317 in 2023 (PPP – data IMF). The Dutch labour market remains tight, with the unemployment rate standing at 3.7% in 2023, when nominal wages have been growing considerably (+6.2% according to the EU Commission). On the back of a slowing economy, the IMF expects the unemployment rate to increase slightly to 4.1% and 4.5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

 
GDP Indicators 20222023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 1,010.191,117.101,142.511,177.591,223.05
GDP (constant prices, annual % change) 4.30.10.61.31.9
GDP per capita (USD) 57,42862,71963,75065,31667,445
General government balance (in % of GDP) 0.6-0.7-1.7-1.8-2.5
General government gross debt (in % of GDP) 50.147.247.748.248.9
Inflation rate (%) 11.64.12.72.12.0
Unemployment rate (% of the labor force) 3.53.63.94.24.5
Current Account (billions USD) 93.66113.57104.23104.11106.87
Current account (in % of GDP) 9.310.29.18.88.7

Font: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, 2016

Note: (e) Estimated data

 
Monetary indicators 20162017201820192020
American Dollar (USD) - Average annual exchange rate for 1 EUR 1.061.131.181.121.14

Font: World Bank, 2015

 

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Actualitzacions: April 2024

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