Pakistan: Visió econòmica i política
Pakistan has achieved steady growth since 2013 in the aftermath of a credit facility agreement with the IMF. However, economic growth slowed in recent years due to measures taken by the authorities to address macroeconomic imbalances and turned negative in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Pakistan faced an economic crisis at the start of FY24, with debt default risks, political instability, and inflationary pressures. Import controls and capital outflow measures disrupted supply chains. Since then, the situation has improved. The IMF Stand-By Arrangement in July 2023 restored exchange rate flexibility, relaxed import controls, and introduced fiscal measures. Political uncertainty eased, and strong agricultural growth helped the economy recover. After contracting by 0.2% y-o-y in FY23, real GDP growth at factor cost rose to 2.4% in FY24. The recovery is expected to continue, with growth projected at 2.8% in FY25, supported by imported inputs, easing supply chain disruptions, and lower inflation. However, growth will remain below potential due to tight macroeconomic policy, high inflation, and ongoing policy uncertainty (World Bank data).
Concerning public finances, the fiscal deficit narrowed by 0.9 percentage points to 6.8% of GDP in FY24 due to fiscal tightening. Higher direct taxes and petroleum development levy hikes increased revenues, surpassing non-interest expenditures and resulting in a primary surplus of 0.9% of GDP. However, rising interest spending crowded out public investment. While social protection spending grew, development expenditures declined, weakening social services and delaying progress on reducing high stunting and learning poverty rates. As per the World Bank forecast, the fiscal deficit is projected to rise to 7.6% of GDP in FY25 due to higher interest payments, but it is expected to gradually decrease with fiscal tightening and lower interest payments. Pakistan's debt-to-GDP ratio has dropped to its lowest in over six years, reaching 65.7% as of September 2024. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported that the total public debt of the federal government stood at Rs. 69.570 trillion in September 2024. This decrease signals a positive shift in Pakistan’s fiscal health as the country works to manage public finances and reduce dependence on external borrowing. Headline inflation slowed to an average of 23.4% in FY24, down from 29.2% in FY23, driven by high base effects, currency appreciation, and slower food inflation. With continued high base effects and lower commodity prices, inflation is expected to ease to 11.1% in FY25, though it will remain elevated due to higher domestic energy prices, expansionary open market operations, and new taxation measures.
Pakistan's unemployment rate is 6.3%, with 4.51 million unemployed, as per the Economic Survey 2023-24. The labour force totals 71.76 million, with 48.5 million in rural areas and 23.2 million in urban areas. Of the 67.25 million employed, 45.7 million are rural and 21.5 million are urban workers. Youth unemployment is highest at 11.1%, with 10.0% for males and 14.4% for females. The 25-34 age group has a 7.3% unemployment rate, with 5.4% for males and 13.3% for females. Female unemployment is notably higher, especially among youth. The level of underemployment remains very high, and much of the economy is informal. While the poverty rate has fallen by 40% over the last two decades, it is still high: using the lower-middle-income poverty rate of USD 3.65 per day, in fact, the World Bank calculated that Pakistan's poverty ratio stood at around 40.5% at the end of FY24. The country has a low GDP per capita (PPP), estimated at USD 6,715 in 2024 by the IMF.
| Main Indicators | 2023 | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 337.46 | 374.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | -0.2 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,458 | 1,588 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 77.3 | 69.2 | 71.4 | 69.8 | 67.4 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 29.2 | 23.4 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 6.5 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 8.5 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -3.28 | -0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -1.0 | -0.2 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.8 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021
The agricultural sector is very important for the Pakistani economy: it contributes 23.3% of the GDP and employs 36.1% of the active population, being the largest source of foreign exchange earnings. Wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane, fruits, vegetables, and tobacco are among the major crops. Cattle livestock farming remains important as the country is among the top 10 beef and veal producers in the world. Pakistan is the sixth-largest cotton producer globally and has abundant natural resources, mainly copper, oil, and gas. According to figures from the Ministry of Finance, Pakistan's agriculture sector grew by 6.25% in 2023-24. Crop production surged by 11.03%, while livestock grew steadily at 3.89%. Forestry slowed to 3.05% from 16.63% the previous year, and fishing saw a modest 0.81% increase.
The industrial sector contributes 20.7% of the GDP and employs 25.6% of the population. The major industries are textile production, oil refining, metal processing, and the production of cement and fertilizers. Pakistan's textile and apparel industry is the largest sector, contributing 65% of merchandise exports and employing 45% of the labour force. Cotton and cotton-based products account for 61% of export earnings (PRGMEA). Maritime transport is also a significant activity; however, the market is dominated by foreign shipping companies and the state-owned Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC). The manufacturing sector accounts for 14% of GDP, with large-scale manufacturing accounting for three-quarters of the total. Pakistan's industrial sector grew by 1.21% in FY 2024, recovering from a 3.74% contraction the previous year (data Ministry of Finance).
The tertiary sector comprises 50.8% of the GDP and employs more than one-third of the workforce (38.3%). The main subsectors are wholesale & retail trade (30.8% of total services and 17.8% of GDP in FY 2024), transport & storage (18.2% and 10.5%, respectively), and real estate (10.1% and 5.8%). As per the Ministry of Finance, the services sector grew by 1.2% in FY 2024, driven by gains in education, health, social work, and other private services. In FY 2024, the wholesale & retail trade sector grew by 0.32%, recovering from previous losses due to low agriculture and manufacturing output, with increased crop production as a key contributor. Transport and storage rose by 1.19%, driven by growth in railways (9.73%) and water transport (8.01%), while road transport grew by 1.15%, despite challenges in the automobile sector. Air transport declined by 6.44% due to a high deflator. The information and communication sector contracted by 3.02%, mainly due to lower telecom revenues and a higher deflator. The finance and insurance sector remained negative, affected by a high deflator and lower insurance output. Public administration and social security saw a decline of 5.25%. Education grew by 10.30%, while human health & social work activities increased by 6.80%. Other private services rose by 3.58%, with strong performance in professional and technical services.
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 36.1 | 25.6 | 38.3 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 23.3 | 20.7 | 50.8 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | 2.2 | -3.7 | -0.0 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024
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Actualitzacions: May 2025
