Panorama econòmic

Economic indicators

e EU Commission, GDP is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027. Private consumption is forecast to increase by 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. Investment is projected to rise slightly in 2026 and 2027, supported by lower interest rates, especially for residential investment. Imports and exports are expected to grow modestly, with goods trade remaining weak due to post-Brexit supply chain issues and the economy’s significant exposure to the energy price shock. Net trade is not anticipated to significantly drive growth.

According to official governmental figures, borrowing for the financial year ending March 2026 was GBP 129.0 billion, GBP 22.8 billion lower than the previous year, marking the sixth-highest borrowing in any financial year since records began in the financial year ending March 1947. Public sector net debt, excluding public sector banks, was provisionally estimated at 94.1% of GDP by July 2026, down 0.8 percentage points from July 2025, remaining at levels last seen in the early 1960s. The new UK government's budget, presented in October 2024, plans a significant increase in public current and investment spending, about 2% of GDP by 2026, funded by higher taxes and increased borrowing. As a result, total public expenditure is projected to decline only slightly as a share of GDP in 2026 and 2027, while total receipts as a share of GDP are expected to rise. The general government deficit is forecast to narrow slowly, remaining around 4.6% in 2027, with overall government debt continuing to rise throughout the forecast period (EU Commission). Prices in the UK rose by 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026, keeping inflation above the 2% target of the Bank of England, which has made five cuts since August 2024. CPI was 3.1% for the year to August 2026, up from 2.9% in July, mainly due to rising motor fuel prices, with further upward contributions from housing and household services and from electricity and gas. In holding Bank Rate at 3.75% in September 2026, the Bank left borrowing costs unchanged since its December 2025 cut.

The UK labour market has shown moderate signs of loosening recently, with vacancies continuing to fall and now at pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate was 4.9% in May to July 2026, with 1.78 million people aged 16+ unemployed, up by around 82,000 over the year (ONS). With tepid GDP growth expected in the coming quarters, labour market slack is anticipated to rise, and nominal wage growth is projected to slow gradually throughout the forecast period. The country’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 64,606 in 2025 by the World Bank, but the relatively solid macroeconomic performance of the United Kingdom conceals weaknesses and situations of inequality. Thus, as the IMF has emphasised, strengthening human capital remains a key priority for the country's economy.

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