Regne Unit: Visió econòmica i política
The United Kingdom is the sixth-largest economy in the world. According to the ONS, in 2024, GDP grew by 0.8%, following a 0.4% increase in 2023. Services led the growth with a 1.3% rise, while construction and agriculture, forestry, and fishing saw increases of 0.4% and 1.0%, respectively. However, production fell by 1.7%, with all four subsectors declining. Twelve of the twenty industry subsectors grew, with professional, scientific, and technical activities (3.2%) and human health and social work activities (2.9%) leading the way. The largest decline came from mining and quarrying, which dropped by 7.2%. According to the EU Commission, GDP is expected to grow by 1.4% in both 2025 and 2026. Private consumption is forecast to increase by 1% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026. Investment is projected to rise slightly in 2025 and 2026, supported by lower interest rates, especially for residential investment. Imports and exports are expected to grow modestly, with goods trade remaining weak due to post-Brexit supply chain issues and the real exchange rate appreciating in 2024. Net trade is not anticipated to significantly drive growth.
According to official governmental figures, borrowing for the financial year ending December 2024 was GBP 129.9 billion, GBP 8.9 billion higher than the previous year, marking the second-highest borrowing since monthly records began in January 1993. Public sector net debt, excluding public sector banks, was provisionally estimated at 97.2% of GDP by December 2024, up 0.3 percentage points from December 2023, remaining at levels last seen in the early 1960s. The new UK government's budget, presented in October 2024, plans a significant increase in public current and investment spending, about 2% of GDP by 2026, funded by higher taxes and increased borrowing. As a result, total public expenditure is projected to decline only slightly as a share of GDP in 2025 and 2026, while total receipts as a share of GDP are expected to rise. The general government deficit is forecast to narrow slowly, remaining around 4% in 2026, with overall government debt continuing to rise throughout the forecast period (EU Commission). Prices in the UK rose by 3% in the 12 months to January, pushing inflation further from the 2% target of the Bank of England, which has made three cuts since August 2024. CPI was 3% for the year to January 2025, up from 2.5% in December, mainly due to rising food prices, VAT on private school fees, and airfares not decreasing as expected. In announcing the latest cut, the Bank warned that inflation was expected to rise again in 2025.
The UK labour market has shown moderate signs of loosening recently, with vacancies continuing to fall and now at pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate was 4.4% in 2024, with 1.56 million people aged 16+ unemployed, up by around 210,000 over the year (ONS). With tepid GDP growth expected in the coming quarters, labour market slack is anticipated to rise, and nominal wage growth is projected to slow gradually throughout the forecast period. The country’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 62,573 in 2024 by the IMF, but the relatively solid macroeconomic performance of the United Kingdom conceals weaknesses and situations of inequality. Thus, as the IMF has emphasised, strengthening human capital remains a key priority for the country's economy.
| Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 3,382.12 | 3,587.55 | 3,730.26 | 3,873.12 | 4,023.53 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 49,648 | 52,423 | 54,280 | 56,144 | 58,125 |
| General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | -4.7 | -3.0 | -3.4 | -3.3 | -3.2 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 100.0 | 101.8 | 103.8 | 104.9 | 106.1 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 7.3 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -66.32 | -99.99 | -105.54 | -108.41 | -104.11 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -2.0 | -2.8 | -2.8 | -2.8 | -2.6 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021
The agricultural sector accounts for only 0.6% of GDP and 1% of employment (World Bank, latest data available), but is very productive, the country managing to produce enough to meet around 60% of its food demand. The main crops produced in the UK are potatoes, beets, wheat and barley. Livestock farming (especially sheep and cattle) remains a major agricultural activity. The fishing sector is also well developed but is currently suffering from the depletion of fish volumes in traditional fishing areas (the subject was a key issue of the trade deal concluded with the EU, which states that the UK will have the right to completely exclude EU boats after 2026). According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in 2024, the UK’s utilised agricultural area (UAA) covered 16.8 million hectares, accounting for 69% of the total land, while the croppable area reached 6.2 million hectares (37% of UAA). The arable crop area fell by 5.4% from 2023 to 4.1 million hectares, with cereals comprising 72% (almost 3.0 million hectares). The country’s total income from farming in 2023 was GBP 7.2 billion, -9.8% year-on-year; while the total livestock output was GBP 19.2 billion (-0.7% - ONS, latest data available).
The United Kingdom is one of the world's largest producing countries, with particularly important civil and military aerospace and pharmaceutical industries, and has considerable mineral resources. Once the 10th-largest oil producer in the world with huge natural gas reserves, its production is declining rapidly. Nevertheless, groups such as British Petroleum (BP) continue to be among the world leaders in the petroleum industry. The industrial sector, which accounts for 17.5% of GDP and employs 18% of the working population, is not very competitive, mainly due to low productivity. Some of the main sectors include machine tools, transport equipment and chemicals. Among the sectors with strong potential are information and communication technologies, biotechnologies, aviation, renewable energies and defence. In 2023, the UK had 269,000 manufacturing organizations, with over 250,000 being SMEs (90%). The sector contributed GBP 217 billion in output (data The Manufacturer).
The tertiary sector is the backbone of the British economy, representing 72.5% of GDP and over 81% of employment. Despite Brexit, London remains the largest financial centre in Europe, on par with New York, and it is also home to the headquarters of many multinationals. The banking sector has been very dynamic, the same as the tourism sector, which generates around 10% of GDP. There are more than 370 monetary financial institutions in the UK, with just under half the sector balance sheet being held in GBP, less than a fifth in EUR and a third in other currencies (European Banking Federation). The retail sector is also pivotal: in 2024, retail sales in Great Britain reached GBP 517 billion, up 1.4% from 2023 (data House of Commons).
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 1.0 | 17.8 | 81.2 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 0.6 | 17.5 | 72.5 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.4 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
Find more information about your business sector on our service Market Reports.
Find out all the exchange rates daily on our service Currency Converter.
The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024
Vols fer algun comentari sobre aquest contingut? Escriu-nos.
© eexpand, Tots els drets reservats.
Actualitzacions: February 2025
