Rússia: Visió econòmica i política
On February 24th 2022, Russia initiated a military conflict on the Ukrainian territory, which profoundly upsets the current political context in both countries and will have substantial political and economic ramifications. For the ongoing updates on the developments of Russia-Ukraine conflict please consult the dedicated pages on BBC News.
The latest specific information on economic sanctions against Russia in response to the conflict in Ukraine is available below:
• What sanctions are being imposed on Russia
• The list of global sanctions on Russia for the war in Ukraine
Russia’s economy stands as one of the world’s most influential, driven largely by its abundant natural resources - especially oil and gas - that power both domestic growth and export earnings. A blend of resource wealth, state control, and reform efforts creates an environment marked by both vast potential and enduring structural challenges. According to Rosstat, the economy grew by just 1.0% in 2025, down sharply from 4.9% in 2024, as the wartime stimulus faded. The IMF puts 2025 growth at the same 1.0% rate. What growth there was remained concentrated in military spending and capital investment in defence production. Despite Western sanctions, Russia’s economy is now over 6% larger than before the Ukraine offensive, according to the central bank. Officials and analysts project similarly weak growth for 2026, with the IMF forecasting a 1.1% expansion, close to the country’s long-term potential growth rate. The removal of international sanctions in case of a ceasefire with Ukraine may have positive effects on Russia’s economy but the situation remains highly volatile.
Concerning public finances, Russia's budget deficit exceeded RUB 3 trillion for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, driven by rising war-related spending and falling energy receipts, according to the finance ministry. The deficit reached RUB 5.65 trillion (USD 72.1 billion), with revenues up 1.6% to RUB 37.28 trillion and spending rising 6.8% to RUB 42.93 trillion. The deficit widened to around 2.6% of GDP from 1.7% in 2024, well beyond the original plan. Oil and gas revenues alone fell 23.8% to RUB 8.48 trillion. Spending was originally set at RUB 41.47 trillion for 2025, with 41% allocated to defence and security, and the deficit was meant to fall to 0.5% of GDP; in the event spending overshot and the deficit came in five times that (official governmental figures). Government expenditure is expected to be two-thirds higher in 2025 than in 2021, prior to the start of Russia's military campaign. Despite higher deficits, the debt-to-GDP ratio is still relatively low, at around 16% at the end of 2025 (finance ministry), and is expected to increase marginally over the forecast horizon. According to the Bank of Russia, the country’s external debt rose by USD 10.5 billion (2.1%) over the first half of 2026, reaching USD 313.3 billion as of 30 June. Consumer prices rose by 5.59% in 2025, down from 9.52% in 2024, a sharper slowdown than either the central bank or the market had expected, though prices remain a key challenge in an economy driven by state military spending. As of mid-2026, the central bank has cut its benchmark interest rate to 14%, down from a peak of 21%, as price growth has eased. By September 2026, the ruble had recovered to around 84 per U.S. dollar, making it one of the better-performing emerging market currencies. The exchange rate had fallen to 110 rubles per dollar in November 2024, the lowest since 2022. High interest rates and constrained imports have since underpinned the currency.
Despite a very low unemployment rate – estimated at 2.1% in 2025 - Russia’s long-term structural economic problems were aggravated by war and sanctions, as the labour force decline has been accelerated by mobilization, war casualties and migration. As a consequence, not only military personnel have seen large pay rises, but wages have also increased in sectors like textiles and agriculture. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, Russian companies' wage arrears reached RUB 2.879 billion (USD 40.6 million) in April 2026, up 94.3% year-on-year. Arrears have risen roughly sixfold since the start of 2025, with some 19,000 workers affected by early May. Overall, Russia is classified as a high-income country by the World Bank, with a GDP per capita (PPP) estimated at USD 49,568 as of 2025 (World Bank).
| Main Indicators | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 2,587.94 | 2,656.45 | 2,533.43 | 2,551.58 | 2,568.74 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 17,972 | 18,525 | 17,711 | 17,885 | 18,053 |
| General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | -3.9 | -2.0 | -2.4 | -3.1 | -2.4 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 17.2 | 19.1 | 21.2 | 23.6 | 25.4 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 8.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | 41.39 | 78.34 | 57.91 | 44.99 | 36.02 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, Latest data available
Agriculture contributes 3.1% of the national GDP and employs around 5% of the total working population. Despite its large area, Russia has relatively little arable land due to unfavourable climatic conditions. The country nevertheless owns 10% of the world's agricultural land. Wheat is the flagship crop—making Russia the world’s largest exporter of wheat—while barley, oats, and rye are also produced in significant quantities. In addition, oilseed crops such as sunflowers (used mainly for oil production), rapeseed, and soybeans play an important role. Other notable cultivations include fodder crops (vital for feeding livestock), as well as industrial crops like sugar beet and various vegetables and root crops (for example, potatoes) grown in more favourable regions. Russia's grain exports fell back to 50 million tonnes in 2025, from 72 million tonnes in 2024, according to the Ministry of Agriculture; wheat accounted for 41 million tonnes of that total, keeping Russia the world's largest wheat exporter.
Industry accounts for 29.7% of Russia's GDP and employs 26% of the workforce. The Russian secondary sector is characterized by its diverse range of industries and resources. Key compartments include energy, with Russia being one of the world's leading producers of oil, natural gas, and coal. Additionally, the country has a robust manufacturing sector, particularly in heavy industries such as metallurgy, machinery, and aerospace. The automotive industry also holds a significant position within Russian industrial production. Emerging sectors include technology and innovation, with a focus on sectors such as biotechnology and nanotechnology. Russia's industrial sector is undergoing modernization efforts aimed at enhancing efficiency, productivity, and competitiveness in the global market. Russia’s industrial production growth slowed to 1.3% y-o-y in 2025, from 5.1% in 2024, while manufacturing grew 3.6% (data Rosstat).
The service sector employs 69% of the population and generates 58.9% of the GDP. Dominant sectors include finance and banking, with Moscow serving as a prominent financial centre in the region. Retail and wholesale trade also play significant roles, as does the tourism industry (which in recent years was hindered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict with Ukraine). Emerging sectors include information technology (IT) and digital services, as Russia seeks to capitalize on its skilled workforce and technological capabilities. Additionally, there is increasing attention on healthcare and education services as the government aims to improve access and quality in these areas.
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 5.1 | 25.8 | 69.1 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 3.1 | 29.7 | 58.9 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in a series of countries. It examines separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2021-2025
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Actualitzacions: October 2026
