Panorama econòmic

Economic indicators

Despite Sweden's exposure to global trade dynamics, the Swedish economy has been in a recovery phase since 2025. After experiencing a mild contraction a few years ago, real GDP growth reached 1.5% in 2025, as the fading inflation shock, improved financial conditions, lower interest rates easing debt burdens, and supportive fiscal policy boosted domestic demand growth. Consumption is expected to strengthen in 2026 and stay robust in 2027, driven by a lower saving rate, low inflation, and a gradual labour market recovery. Gross fixed capital formation is set to grow solidly from 2026, supported by easier financial conditions and a modest housing construction rebound. Government investment and higher real consumption will boost domestic demand in 2026, while foreign demand is projected to contribute less to growth. Overall, the EU Commission forecasts growth to pick up further to 1.8% in 2026 and 2.2% the following year.

Sweden is among the few advanced European economies to show both a current account surplus and low public debt. Amid weak growth and rising unemployment, the general government balance stood at an estimated -1.3% of GDP in 2025. With rising expenditure, it is projected to widen to -2.8% in 2026 (EU Commission), driven by high defence and Ukraine aid spending and a central bank capital injection. By 2027, the deficit is expected to narrow to 2.5% of GDP as tax revenues increase. The general government gross debt ratio stood at 35.1% of GDP in 2025 and is forecast to rise to 36.6% in 2026 and 37.7% in 2027, as deficits outpace nominal GDP growth. In 2025, HICP inflation averaged 2.6%, up from 2.1% in 2024 but still far below the nearly 6% of 2023, with services the main remaining source of price pressure. This decline was driven by easing supply bottlenecks, a large negative output gap, lower energy prices, and an effective exchange rate recovery since mid-2023. Inflation is projected to drop to 1.5% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 (EU Commission).

The labour market remained relatively resilient to weak economic growth, partly due to a shift in domestic demand toward labour-intensive services, including health, ICT, restaurants, and hotels. In 2025, unemployment averaged 8.8% (from 8.4% one year earlier). Due to the usual lag between labour market trends and the broader economy, employment growth is expected to pick up in 2026, with the unemployment rate falling below 8% only in 2027 (EU Commission). Wage growth is projected to stay moderate amid declining inflation. Overall, Swedish citizens enjoy a high per capita GDP of USD 72,529 (PPP, 2025 - World Bank), 10.7% higher than the EU’s average. The ratio of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion stood at 18.6% in 2025, compared to an EU average of 20.9% (Eurostat).

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