Tadjikistan: Panorama econòmic
Tajikistan is a lower-middle-income, mountainous country with an economy based mainly on mineral extraction, metal processing, agriculture, and the remittances of citizens working abroad. The last twenty years saw steady growth, and although at a slower pace, the economy continued to grow even amid the global COVID-19 crisis. Tajikistan's economy expanded by 8.3% in 2023, buoyed by increased domestic demand fueled by remittances and exports of precious metals. The growth was widespread across various sectors, with agriculture leading the expansion, followed by industry, construction, and services. The economy is anticipated to grow at a rate of 6.5% in 2024, driven by private consumption, buoyed by Russia's robust demand for labor migrants, along with sustained growth in domestic real wages and increased public spending on infrastructure. However, the surge in gold exports witnessed in 2023 is projected to diminish due to a high base effect (data World Bank).
The 2023 budget deficit is estimated at 1.4% of GDP, similar to 2022. Enhanced economic activity and improved tax administration resulted in an increase in tax receipts from 18.5% in 2022 to 19.2% of GDP in 2023. Budget expenditures rose from 28.5% of GDP to 30.8%, driven by investments in energy, education, and communication sectors. The fiscal deficit is projected to be limited to 2.5% of GDP in the medium term. A revised medium-term revenue plan aims to enhance tax collection by gradually eliminating inefficient tax exemptions. Consumer price inflation remained moderate at 3.7% on average in 2023. This was supported by controlled depreciation of the local currency, administrative price controls, strong agricultural output, and declining fuel prices. The central bank progressively eased monetary policy, reducing the policy rate from 13% to 10% in 2023, further to 9.5% in February 2024. Inflation is forecasted to stay within the target range of 4 to 8% in 2024. Tajikistan's potential continues to be hampered by obstacles to market competition, weak institutional frameworks, and limited human capital. Productivity remains low, and the private sector struggles to generate employment opportunities. The country heavily relies on labor migration, mainly to Russia, and the export of natural resources, particularly metals and minerals, which constitute two-thirds of its total exports. In the short and medium term, the government's priorities include dismantling barriers to foster a dynamic private sector, enhancing transparency and accountability within the public sector to improve service delivery, including in state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and implementing measures to promote inclusive growth and bolster resilience to climate-related shocks.
Tajikistan retains its status as the poorest country in the ECA region, boasting a GNI per capita of USD 1,210 in 2022, with 10.7% of households residing below the lower-middle-income poverty line in 2023 (World Bank). The unemployment rate registered a marginal decrease in 2022, standing at 6.9% (from 7% one year earlier), as per the World Bank. Tajikistan's economic prospects face numerous risks. These encompass geopolitical instability, slower-than-anticipated global economic growth, tightening financial circumstances, substantial contingent liabilities within the SOE sector, and sluggish progress in structural reforms. Furthermore, Tajikistan's susceptibility to climate change and natural calamities adds another layer of vulnerability to its economic stability.
| Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (billions USD) | 11.86 | 13.00 | 14.16 | 15.45 | 16.83 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 8.3 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,184 | 1,276 | 1,367 | 1,467 | 1,573 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 30.9 | 30.7 | 30.1 | 29.3 | 28.8 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 3.7 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | 0.58 | 0.03 | -0.24 | -0.28 | -0.39 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | 4.9 | 0.3 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -2.3 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database - October 2021.
Note: (e) Estimated Data
| Monetary Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajikistan Somoni (TJS) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 EUR | 8.34 | 9.66 | 10.80 | 10.67 | 11.79 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 42.7 | 20.1 | 37.1 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 22.9 | 34.7 | 34.1 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | -4.5 | 9.3 | 13.8 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
| Socio-Demographic Indicators | 2025 (e) | 2026 (e) | 2027 (e) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database - Latest available data
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Force | 2,322,553 | 2,327,478 | 2,329,165 |
Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total activity rate | 42.84% | 42.14% | 41.47% |
| Men activity rate | 53.43% | 52.87% | 52.28% |
| Women activity rate | 32.23% | 31.41% | 30.66% |
Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database
The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
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The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.
Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House
The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.).
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Latest Update: May 2024
