Taiwan, Xina: Visió econòmica i política
Foreign trade has been the engine of Taiwan's rapid growth during the past 40 years. Taiwan is very open to international trade, which represented over 62% of GDP in Taiwan from 2015 to 2018 (WTO, 2020) . Main exports include electrical equipment, machinery, computers, plastics, medical apparatus, mineral fuels and vehicles; while imports include electrical equipment, mineral fuels, machinery and computers. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting an increase of 4.7% in the volume of exports of goods and services of the country in 2022, after an increase of 2.8% in 2021 and a fall of 4.9% in 2020 due to the COVID pandemic, and an increase of 5% of its imports, after an increase of 15.2% in 2021 and a fall of 3.2% in 2020.
Taiwan's economy is export-oriented. Exports account for around 70 percent of total GDP and its composition have changed from predominantly agricultural commodities to industrial goods (now 98%) during the past 40 years. Main exports products are: electronics (33.1% of total), information, communication and audio-video products (10.8%), base metals (8.8%), plastics & rubber (7.1%), machinery (7.5 percent). Main exports partners are Mainland China & Hong Kong (40% of total), ASEAN countries (18.3%), USA (12%), Europe (9%) and Japan with 7% (Trading Economics, 2022).
A lack of natural resources had made Taiwan dependent on imports. Taiwan imports mostly parts of electronic products (18.2% of total), mineral products (15.2%), machinery (12.4%), chemicals (10.8%) and base metals (7.3%). Main import partners are Mainland China & Hong Kong (19.6% of total), Japan (17.6%), Europe (12.6%), USA (12.4%), ASEAN countries (11.8%) and Middle East (7.7%).
Since Taiwan's economy is highly export-oriented, it depends on a regime open to international trade and remains vulnerable to fluctuations in the global economy. Political tensions between separatist and reunificationists in Taiwan made reaching policy consensus difficult. The United States commercial battle against China has increased risk in Asian economies. Lack of international recognition from other countries also complicates Taiwan's international position.
Taiwan exported USD 330.6 billion of goods and USD 51.4 billion of services in 2020, and imported USD 287.1 billion of goods and USD 56.3 billion of services (WTO, 2021). Electronics industry is the largest industrial export sector and it receives the most US investment. Taiwan's trade surplus widened to USD 5.71 billion in November of 2021 from USD 5.14 billion in the same month last year, more than market expectations of USD 5.4 billion. Exports jumped 30.2% year-on-year to a fresh record of USD 41.58 billion, way more than market forecasts of a 23.05% hike, mainly driven by robust demand for tech products ahead of the peak holiday season. Accordingly, shipments rose the most for machinery & electrical equipment (25.5%); followed by base metals & articles thereof (67.7%); and plastic & articles thereof (33.4%). Meanwhile, imports advanced 33.8% to USD 35.86 billion, led by purchases of machinery & electrical equipment (20.3%); mineral products (133.9%); and chemicals with 37.7% (Ministry of Finance, R.O.C., 2021). Taiwan's membership in the WTO as an independent economy has also supported its commerce since 2002. The island has also a free trade agreement with New Zealand.
Foreign Trade Values | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
Imports of Goods (million USD) | 259,266 | 286,333 | 287,164 | 288,053 | 382,101 |
Exports of Goods (million USD) | 317,249 | 335,909 | 330,622 | 347,193 | 447,693 |
Imports of Services (million USD) | 52,771 | 56,182 | 56,289 | 37,306 | 39,562 |
Exports of Services (million USD) | 44,721 | 49,832 | 51,475 | 40,992 | 52,036 |
Source: World Trade Organisation (WTO) ; Latest available data
Foreign Trade Forecasts | 2022 | 2023 (e) | 2024 (e) | 2025 (e) | 2026 (e) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Volume of exports of goods and services (Annual % change) | 0.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
Volume of imports of goods and services (Annual % change) | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook ; Latest available data
Note: (e) Estimated Data
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Actualitzacions: January 2023