Tanzània flag Tanzània: Visió econòmica i política

El context econòmic de Tanzània

Economic Indicators

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Tanzania has experienced strong growth in recent years, with an average growth of 6.5% in the last decade, thanks to a high level of exports in natural resources, developments in the tertiary sector (telecommunications, transportation, finance, tourism) and the establishment of a liberalisation programme. However, due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the collapse in tourism induced by the travel restrictions, economic activity slowed down, GDP growth declining from 7% in 2019 to 4.8% in 2020 and 4% in 2021 (IMF). Tanzania was nonetheless one of the rare economies not to fall into economic recession, thanks to gold exports and only light health restrictions. Economic growth is expected to pick up to 5.1% in 2022 and 5.5% in 2023 (IMF), supported by private consumption. Downside risks include weak fiscal metrics, elevated debt stocks and ongoing uncertainty over the pandemic (Focus Economics).

Even though Tanzania did not put in place strict lockdown measures, its economy decelerated in 2020 and 2021 due to a major slowdown in regional activity and trade, along with a severe downturn in the tourism sector. To mitigate the health and socioeconomic effects of the pandemic, the authorities implemented a comprehensive emergency response plan, the Covid-19 Socioeconomic Response Plan (TCRP), which includes a vaccination campaign. The country benefitted from emergency financial assistance under the IMF’s Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). Increased expenditures caused public deficit to widen to -3.4% GDP in 2021 (from -1.9% GDP in 2020), and it is expected to further increase to -3.9% GDP in 2022 (Coface). Fuelled by ongoing infrastructure projects, public debt increased from an estimated 39.1% GDP in 2020 to 39.7% GDP in 2021, and it is forecast to gradually decrease to 39.6% GDP in 2022 and 38.9% in 2023 (IMF). Tanzania’s risk of external and public debt distress remains moderate. Inflation decreased from an estimated 3.3% in 2020 to 3.2% in 2021, and it is expected to slightly increase to 3.4% in 2022 and 3.5% in 2023 (IMF). Despite higher imports and high commodity prices, inflation remains below the central bank's 5% target (Coface). The priorities are to carry on the vaccination campaign, enhance social safety nets and improve transparency, public resource management and administration. The government has adopted an ambitious development plan (Tanzania Development Vision 2025) focused on supporting the private sector, industrialization and creation jobs. It aims to improve the business climate by upgrading infrastructure, facilitating access to finance and advancing the level of education. Zanzibar also revealed a five-year USD 2 billion plan to diversify away from the tourism industry (Focus Economics). Long-standing structural problems include mismanagement of public finances and an underdeveloped legal framework that undermines the effectiveness of regulation. In addition, the country remains heavily dependent on foreign aid, with almost a third of its budget coming from international aid.

The poverty rate, which was as high as 60% in 2007, was estimated at 49.5% in 2020 (World Bank). Poverty and income inequality remain high despite high economic growth. The country also has a high HIV/AIDS rate and many people lack access to basic services (water, electricity and healthcare). Additionally, the quality of primary health care has been negatively affected by a range of factors, including shortage and poor distribution of health workers, poor access to essential medicines and poor infrastructure. According to World Bank data, unemployment rate was 2.5% in 2020.

 
Main Indicators 201920202021 (e)2022 (e)2023 (e)
GDP (billions USD) 60.8164.4069.2474.5480.08
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 7.04.84.05.15.5
GDP per Capita (USD) 1,080e1,1101,1591,2121,264
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 39.0e39.1e39.739.638.9
Inflation Rate (%) 3.4e3.3e3.74.45.4
Current Account (billions USD) -1.54-1.14e-2.24-2.86-2.53
Current Account (in % of GDP) -2.5-1.8e-3.2-3.8-3.2

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021

Note: (e) Estimated Data

Main Sectors of Industry

Tanzania has a vast natural resource wealth, with significant reserves of gold, diamond, iron, coal, nickel, tanzanite, uranium, tin, phosphates, gemstones, and natural gas. Even though only about 14% of the land is arable, agriculture is the backbone of the Tanzanian economy. It employs 65% of the workforce and accounts for 26.7% of the country's GDP, although the sector's contribution to the economy has been declining gradually (World Bank). Tanzania's main crops are tobacco, coffee, cashew nuts, tea, cloves, cotton and sisal plant. Due to its diverse climatic and geographic zones, Tanzania has one of the widest crop varieties in Africa. Livestock production, especially cattle and sheep, is another important component of the primary sector. Agriculture is also a main source of exports; however, its real value has declined by up to 85% over the last 30 years, with the fall of global commodity prices.

Industry accounts for 28.7% of GDP and employs around 6% of the workforce. Manufacturing makes up more than half of the secondary sector, followed by processing (around 40%) and assembling industries (less than 5%). The manufacturing sector is largely centred on the processing of agricultural products. Mining makes an important contribution to the economy, mainly through the extraction of gold, nickel and copper. The country has significant gold reserves and is the 8th largest producer in Africa. The construction sector has been progressively contributing to GDP, with increasing infrastructure and real estate projects.

Services account for 36.3% of GDP and employs 28% of the total workforce. Transport and storage, financial and insurance activities, and information and communication are the fastest growing sectors. Tourism is another important component of the tertiary sector as Tanzania has one of the richest and most diverse wildlife in Africa. It contributes to around 10% of the GDP and 10% of employment. Tourism and trade were particularly impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, and activity remained below pre-pandemic levels in 2021.

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 65.1 6.5 28.4
Value Added (in % of GDP) 26.7 28.7 36.3
Value Added (Annual % Change) 3.1 2.5 0.9

Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.

 

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Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}

Score:
61,3/100
World Rank:
93
Regional Rank:
8

Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation

 
 

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.
 

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Actualitzacions: September 2022

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