Turquia: Visió econòmica i política
Türkiye's economy stands as one of the world’s largest emerging markets, powered by a diversified industrial base and a dynamic manufacturing sector that bridges Europe and Asia. Bolstered by robust private sector activity and ongoing structural reforms, Türkiye continues to wield significant economic influence both regionally and globally. Following a 5.1% increase in 2023, economic growth is expected to slow from 3% in 2024 to 2.6% in 2025, as necessary macroeconomic stabilisation policies dampen domestic demand (IMF). Tighter financial conditions and ongoing fiscal consolidation will restrict household consumption. Investment and government consumption will also decelerate as the post-earthquake reconstruction effects fade. However, exports are projected to rise due to improvements in the external environment and a continued recovery in international tourism. GDP growth is expected to rebound to 3.2% in 2026 as the impact of stabilisation policies diminishes.
Concerning public finances, Türkiye's economy is projected to experience a gradual reduction in the central government deficit, decreasing from an estimated 4.8% of GDP in 2024 to 3% by 2026. This improvement is anticipated to result from decreased earthquake-related expenditures, enhanced fiscal discipline, a gradual reduction in electricity and gas subsidies, and measures aimed at improving tax revenue collection and reducing informality. Fitch Ratings reports that general government debt fell to 25.2% of GDP by the end-2024 and is expected to average 26.3%, driven by high nominal GDP growth, the real appreciation of the lira, and low primary deficits. Interest payments-to-revenue are forecast to rise, reaching 10.9% in 2025, while the share of foreign-currency-denominated debt decreased to 56.1% in 2024 from 64.2% at the end of 2023, and 55.7% of domestic debt is still subject to interest rate re-fixing within 12 months. Average annual inflation is expected to significantly decline to 32.8% in 2025, down from 60.2% in 2024. However, with inflation still high, persistent expectations, and volatile market sentiment, any rapid easing of monetary policy or deviation from the current policy could trigger renewed inflationary pressures and increase macro-financial stability and balance of payments risks.
According to IMF estimates, employment partially recovered along with the rebound in economic activity, hence the unemployment rate decreased to 9.3% in 2024, its lowest level in nearly a decade. However, a significant underlying market slack persists, as evidenced by consistently high levels of labour underutilization. Combined with the delayed effects of reduced economic activity, this is expected to hinder job creation and push unemployment up to 9.6% in 2025. Wage inequality and the size of the informal sector remain long-standing problems. In 2024, the IMF estimated the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) at USD 41,914, 35.2% below the EU average.
| Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 1,129.97 | 1,344.32 | 1,455.41 | 1,477.34 | 1,565.51 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 5.1 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 13,236 | 15,666 | 16,877 | 17,049 | 17,983 |
| General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | -2.3 | -3.3 | -2.9 | -2.4 | -2.7 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 29.3 | 25.2 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 53.9 | 60.9 | 33.0 | 19.2 | 16.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 9.5 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -45.01 | -29.05 | -30.16 | -29.68 | -29.50 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -4.0 | -2.2 | -2.1 | -2.0 | -1.9 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021
The agricultural sector constitutes 6.2% of Türkiye’s GDP. Despite employing 15% of the active population, the sector continues to suffer from low productivity due to reliance on small farms. Approximately 11% of Türkiye’s territory is used as agricultural land. Wheat is the country’s main crop, though Türkiye is the world’s third-largest exporter of tobacco and the largest producer of hazelnuts (nearly 70% of global production). Türkiye continues to be a net exporter of agricultural products, but livestock imports are growing exponentially to compensate for the shrinking animal breeding sector. Mineral resources are abundant but under-exploited. According to the latest estimates from Turkstat, in 2024, the production of cereals and other field crops (excluding fodder crops) dropped by 5.0%, while vegetables rose by 5.6%, and fruits, beverages, and spices increased by 2.1% compared to the previous year. Production quantities for 2024 were approximately 75.5 million tonnes for cereals and other crops, 33.6 million tonnes for vegetables, and 28 million tonnes for fruits, beverages, and spices.
The secondary sector accounts for 28.4% of GDP and employs 278% of the workforce. Manufacturing is the main industrial activity of the country, accounting for 20% of GDP (World Bank). Car manufacturing and textile spearhead the Turkish industry, and other important segments are food products, basic metals and fabricated metal products, plastic products, chemicals, and electrical equipment. Türkiye is among the largest textile exporters in the world. The iron and steel sector in Türkiye is of great importance for the general performance of the manufacturing industry due to its increasing production capacity, export potential and the inputs it provides to other sectors. Industrial production grew 7% year-on-year in December and rose 5% month-on-month, according to official data. This was the strongest expansion since February last year when output surged by over 11%.
The services sector accounts for 54.1% of GDP, employing 58% of the country’s workforce (World Bank, latest data available). Tourism represents around 12% of GDP as well as 10.2% of employment and is a major source of foreign currency for the nation. Tourism revenue in Türkiye rose by 8.3% in 2024, reaching a record USD 61.1 billion, according to data from Turkstat. As per the Turkish banking sector, it is comprised of 34 deposit banks (of which three are state-owned), 20 development and investment banks, 3 state-owned deposit banks, 9 private deposit banks, and 9 participation banks (European Banking Federation).
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 14.6 | 27.6 | 57.8 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 6.2 | 28.4 | 54.1 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | 0.2 | 2.5 | 5.9 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist - Business Environment Rankings 2014-2018
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Actualitzacions: February 2025
