Panorama econòmic

Economic indicators

Uzbekistan has been implementing ambitious market-oriented economic reforms, which had a positive impact on the country's economy. In 2023, the government adopted the National Development Strategy 2030, with the goal of becoming an upper-middle-income country by the end of the decade. Uzbekistan's economy demonstrates resilience against spillovers from the Ukraine war and Russian sanctions, maintaining growth rates that rank among the highest in the CIS region. Real GDP growth in 2024 was strong at 6.5% (from 6.3% one year earlier), driven by robust domestic demand. The external current account deficit narrowed by 2.6 percentage points to 5.0% of GDP, supported by strong remittances, high commodity prices, rapid growth in non-gold exports, and a reduction in the one-off import surge from 2023. Growth is expected to stay strong, though external uncertainty has risen recently. Global tariff hikes have heightened uncertainty and tightened financial conditions, potentially impacting Uzbekistan through external demand, commodity prices, and financial flows. Despite these challenges, real GDP growth is projected to remain around 6% in 2025 and 2026, supported by sustained private consumption, investment, and ongoing structural reforms (data IMF).

Concerning public finances, in 2024, the consolidated government deficit decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 3.2% of GDP, mainly due to reduced energy subsidies and better-targeted social spending. Higher gold prices helped offset lower VAT revenues from increased VAT refunds. However, the decline in domestic demand from the smaller deficit was offset by higher public sector spending, including from SOEs, supported by an increase in the external borrowing ceiling. The government is expected to achieve its fiscal deficit target of 3% of GDP in 2025, continuing its fiscal consolidation efforts, including an additional round of energy subsidy reductions planned for mid-2025. By the end of Q4 2024, Uzbekistan's national debt reached USD 40.2 billion, or 35% of GDP, according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Of this, USD 33.7 billion (84%) was external debt, with USD 17.9 billion raised at a fixed interest rate and USD 15.64 billion at variable rates. Domestic debt stood at nearly USD 6.5 billion, up from USD 5.9 billion at the start of the year, with USD 5.1 billion raised at a fixed interest rate and USD 1.2 billion obtained interest-free. The government is expected to stay within its borrowing limits of USD 5.5 billion, with public debt falling below 33% of GDP by 2027. Meanwhile, headline inflation in 2024 peaked at 10.6% in June, mainly due to essential energy tariff hikes. However, low food inflation helped offset the overall impact, with CPI inflation moderating to 9.8% in December before rising again to 10.1% by February 2025. A 50 basis point interest rate cut to 13.5% in July 2024 was countered by a 50 basis point increase in March 2025 as inflation remained high. As per the World Bank’s outlook, headline inflation is projected to decrease to 9% in 2025, gradually reaching the inflation target of 5% by 2027.

According to the Ministry of Poverty Alleviation and Employment of Uzbekistan, the unemployment rate among the working-age population has decreased from 10.5% in 2020 to 6.8% by the end of 2024. According to Coface, however, more than half of employment is in the informal sector. Moreover, the overall economic growth and increased urbanization in recent years contradict the persisting poverty. The upper middle-income poverty rate fell from 13.4% in 2023 to 10.9% in 2024 (USD 6.85/day, 2017 PPP), driven primarily by increased employment and growth in household agriculture and business income. Lastly, the IMF estimated the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) at USD 11,704 in 2024.

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