Panorama econòmic

Economic indicators

Endowed with the largest oil reserves in the world, Venezuela is largely dependent on fluctuations in oil prices. The country experienced a 6% GDP growth in 2022 due to the increase in oil prices and the recovery in remittances sent to the country by Venezuelans abroad, followed by an estimated growth of 4% in 2023. In 2024, the IMF estimated growth at 3%, with a similar outlook for 2025. In 2024, Venezuela's economic activity grew by 3.9%, according to the figures from the Venezuelan Finance Observatory. It is worth noting that over 70% of this economic growth is attributed to the significant increase in oil production, which rose by 12.3% in 2024, largely driven by Chevron's contribution. Meanwhile, non-oil economic activity saw a rise of 3.9%. For 2025, the IMF forecasts growth at 3%.

The country's industrial activity continues to suffer from insufficient diversification and difficulties in importing intermediate products. The policy of redistributing petroleum through social measures was hindered by the weakness of oil prices, which have been in sharp decline since 2012, only recently recovering. This has reinforced the macroeconomic imbalances that Venezuela suffers from. According to official governmental figures, Venezuela's inflation closed at 48% in 2024 as prices showed a slowdown compared to 2023, when the inflation rate was 189.8%, (data from the Central Bank). The hyperinflationary climate registered in recent years was created by a period of monetizing the public deficit, a free-falling currency that makes imports more expensive, a strong depreciation of the currency in both the official and black markets and dramatic shortages of basic goods. The Venezuelan government is planning a budget of USD 22.7 billion for 2025, marking an increase of nearly 11% compared to last year's spending of USD 20.5 billion, with contributions from state-run oil company PDVSA expected to fall 14.6% amid international sanctions. Income from PDVSA, through sales and taxes, will cover 53% of the government's spending needs, amounting to USD 10.1 billion, based on the exchange rate calculated by Venezuela's central bank. In 2024, PDVSA contributed USD 11.9 billion. Tax revenues will contribute USD 5.25 billion to the budget, financing 28% of the spending, according to the document. Additional funding will come from mining, loans, and debt issuances.

Despite multiple minimum wage hikes decided by the government, real wages have continuously decreased, and household consumption is highly dependent on remittances from expatriates. Therefore, purchasing power is weak and has greatly decreased in recent years; poverty has increased, and the health system is in a critical state. The unemployment rate has been rising for years, and the IMF estimated that this rate has surpassed half of the Venezuelan workforce. Nevertheless, the state has not released an official unemployment figure since 2021, when it claimed it was 7.9%. Furthermore, the country also faces a rise in insecurity, with the highest homicide rate in South America. Because of the country's current economic situation, there are severe shortages of basic goods, such as food and medicine - with Venezuela being among the countries with the highest rates of food insecurity in the world. As such, neighbouring countries have been receiving a large number of Venezuelan migrants and refugees in recent years, with estimates suggesting that over 6 million people have left the country so far.

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