Panorama econòmic

Economic indicators

Vietnam is one of the fastest-growing countries in the world, and its economy has shown resilience to trade wars and slower growth rates in neighboring China. This accelerated economic pace is due to labor shifting from agriculture to manufacturing and services, private investment, a strong tourist sector, higher wages, and accelerating urbanization. Exports constitute an increasingly significant contribution to Vietnam's GDP, and certain sectors such as industrial production, textiles, electronics, and seafood production have been growing rapidly. In 2022, Vietnam underwent a resilient economic resurgence following the pandemic (+8%); however, GDP expanded by 5.05% in 2023, falling short of the government's official growth target of 6.5%, primarily due to a slowdown in overseas demand affecting the Southeast Asian export hub (official government data). According to IMF forecasts, GDP growth in Vietnam is expected to pick up to 5.8% this year and 6.9% in 2025.

The government's financial strategy for 2030 incorporates initiatives aimed at expanding the value-added tax base, strengthening the capabilities of tax authorities, streamlining import tariffs, and offering electronic and digital services to taxpayers. The strategy aims for a budget deficit of approximately 3.7% of GDP from 2021 to 2025, with a further decrease to 3% of GDP by 2030. However, Fitch Ratings forecasts the budget deficit to average around 4.3% of GDP between 2024 and 2025, rising from an estimated 4.1% of GDP in 2023. According to the IMF, government debt decreased to an estimated 34% of GDP in 2023, from 35.3% one year earlier, and is expected to further decrease over the forecast horizon (31.7% by 2025). Vietnam's external debt composition remains advantageous, with the majority of debt owed to bilateral and multilateral sources. This structure results in a reduced external debt service burden and bolsters its high external liquidity ratio (Fitch). The General Statistics Office reported that Vietnam's consumer price index for 2023 increased by 3.25% year-on-year, aligning with the target established by the National Assembly. Throughout the year, the prices of housing and construction materials increased by 6.58%; food rose by 6.85%; electricity by 4.86%; drugs and medical services experienced a 1.23% increase; and other goods and services saw a 4.65% uptick. Inflation is expected to return around 2% this year (IMF).

The unemployment rate in Vietnam remains particularly low. It fell to 2.28% in 2023 according to the General Statistics Office. The unemployment rate among young individuals aged 15 to 24 stood at 7.63%, equivalent to 437,300 people, marking a decrease of 0.15 percentage points compared to 2022. Over the last decade, poverty declined impressively, dropping from 16.8% to 5%, although around 13.5 million people are still economically vulnerable (World Bank).

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