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El context econòmic de Vietnam

Economic Indicators

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Vietnam is one of the fastest growing countries in the world and its economy has shown resilience to trade wars and slower growth rates in neighbouring China. This accelerated economic pace is due to labour shifting from agriculture to manufacturing and services, private investment, a strong tourist sector, higher wages, and accelerating urbanisation. Exports constitute an increasingly significant contribution to Vietnam's GDP and certain sectors, such as industrial production, textile, electronics and seafood production have been growing rapidly. Growth reached a 10-year high of 7.2% in 2019 and due to the outbreak of the COVID-19, dropped but remained in positive territory in 2020 with 2.9% and 2021 with 3.8%. According to the updated IMF forecasts from October l 2021, GDP growth in Vietnam is expected to reach 6.6% in 2022 and 6.8% in 2023, subject to the post-pandemic global economic recovery.

According to the IMF, government debt reached 46.3% of GDP in 2020, up from 43.6% a year earlier, and 47.9% in 2021. It is expected to stabilise at 47.8% in both 2022 and 2023. This limited increase is a result of tightening monetary policies and limits on new government guarantees. Inflation went up to 3.2% in 2020 from 2.2% in 2019, and 2.7% in 2021. It is forecast to average 2.3% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023 by the latest World Economic Outlook of the IMF (October 2021). Diversified trade structure, rising wages and domestic consumption are the backbone of the Vietnamese economic growth. Nonetheless, labour costs remain competitive, which help attract foreign investments to the country. Economic challenges include lack of infrastructure, business climate shortcomings, pending public sector reforms, growing inequality, a weak banking system. Tax reforms and privatisation of state-owned companies helped compensate the budget deficit in 2021 which stayed below 4% of GDP (Financial Post, 2022). Around 40% of Vietnam's debt has medium or long-term maturity, a significant risk considering 40% of said debt is denominated in foreign currencies and represent a currency risk. Nonetheless, public authorities continue to intervene in both directions to keep the Dong within a narrow band against major international currencies and accrue foreign reserves.

The unemployment rate in Vietnam remains particularly low. It reached 3.3% in 2020 from 2.2% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2021. It is expected to reach 2.4% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023 (IMF, October 2021). Social challenges include poverty reduction, improving higher education, and allowing freedom of the press. Transparency International ranks Vietnam as 87th out of 180 countries in its Corruption Perceptions Index 2021, from the 104th spot a year earlier.

 
Main Indicators 201920202021 (e)2022 (e)2023 (e)
GDP (billions USD) 327.87e343.11e368.00415.49461.02
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 7.2e2.93.86.66.8
GDP per Capita (USD) 3,3983,5233,7434,1874,605
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 43.6e46.347.947.847.8
Inflation Rate (%) 2.83.2e1.93.83.2
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) 2.23.3e2.72.42.3
Current Account (billions USD) 12.4812.536.6913.2612.22
Current Account (in % of GDP) 3.83.7e1.83.22.7

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021

Note: (e) Estimated Data

Main Sectors of Industry

Vietnam's economy is based on large state-owned industries such as textiles, food, furniture, plastics and paper as well as tourism and telecommunications. Agriculture represented 14.8% of GDP and employs 38% of the total workforce in 2021 (World Bank, 2022). Main crops include rice, coffee, cashew nuts, corn, pepper, sweet potatoes, peanuts, cotton, rubber and tea as well as aquaculture. While agricultural trade surplus edged up on the year in 2019, the livestock industry continued to suffer from various diseases, including swine flu.

Industry contributed 33.7% of GDP and employed 27% of the total workforce in 2021 (World Bank). The energy sector has boomed in recent years (coal, hydrocarbons, electricity, cement, steel industry). Despite being a 'newcomer' in the oil industry, Vietnam has become the third largest Southeast Asian producer. The country has also invested in high value-added industries such as cars, electronic and computer technologies (software).

Services represented 41.6% of GDP and employed 35% of the total workforce in 2021 (World Bank). Main services include tourism and telecommunications.

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 37.2 27.4 35.3
Value Added (in % of GDP) 14.9 33.7 41.6
Value Added (Annual % Change) 2.7 4.0 2.3

Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.

 

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Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}

Score:
61,7/100
World Rank:
90
Regional Rank:
17

Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation

 

Business environment ranking

Definition:

The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.

Score:
6.25/10
World Rank:
46/82

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024

 

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.
 

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Actualitzacions: October 2022

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