Xina: Visió econòmica i política
China is the second-largest global economy, the largest exporter and has the largest exchange reserves in the world. After a 5.3% increase in 2023, China’s economic growth remained robust at 4.8% in 2024, despite facing multiple challenges. However, growth has moderated since the second quarter of the year, primarily due to subdued domestic demand and a prolonged downturn in the property sector. The government has introduced policy stimulus aimed at balancing short-term support for domestic demand with longer-term financial stability objectives. Manufacturing and infrastructure investment have remained robust, partially offsetting the contraction in real estate investment. Robust net exports, driven by strong external demand, supported economic activity, contributing 2 percentage points to overall growth. China’s GDP growth is projected to slow to 4.5% in 2025. Slower household income growth and the negative wealth effect from lower home prices are expected to weigh on consumption. Policy support for the property sector may provide a modest boost to housing demand and help reduce high inventory levels, though a full recovery in the sector is not expected until late 2025. Elevated uncertainty and reduced profitability will likely dampen manufacturing investment, while public spending will support infrastructure investment (World Bank).
Concerning public finances, China's fiscal revenue in 2024 grew 1.3% year-on-year, a sharp slowdown from the 6.4% increase in 2023, as a prolonged property market slump and slowing domestic demand weighed on the economy. Total fiscal revenues in 2024 amounted to CNY 21.97 trillion (USD 3.03 trillion), including CNY 17.497 trillion in tax receipts and CNY 4.473 trillion in non-tax income. Tax revenue fell 3.4%, while non-tax revenue surged 25.4%. Revenue from land sales by local governments dropped 16%, reflecting the deep property downturn. Such revenues have historically driven local economic growth, and the sharp decline has significantly impacted overall business activity. Fiscal expenditure grew 3.6% in 2024, slowing from 5.4% in 2023. Overall, the consolidated fiscal deficit was estimated at 7% in 2024, from 6.3% in the previous year, and is expected to increase to 7.4% in 2025 (IMF). Meanwhile, the debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 90.1%, up from 84.4% in 2023. The IMF expects the debt ratio to rise to 97.7% by 2026. In November 2024, China unveiled a CNY 10 trillion (USD 1.4 trillion) debt package to ease local government financing strains and stabilize economic growth. The special bond quota for local governments was increased by CNY 6 trillion (USD 836 billion) over the next three years, raising it to CNY 35.52 trillion and the overall debt ceiling to CNY 52.79 trillion. By the end of 2023, local government debt under official quotas stood at CNY 40.74 trillion. The new funds will help repay debt accumulated via local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), which Beijing classifies as "hidden debt." Local governments will also be allowed to use CNY 800 billion annually for the next five years for debt issuance already approved by Beijing to repay LGFV loans, bonds, and shadow credits. Over 2024, consumer price inflation has remained very low due to sluggish domestic demand (at 0.4%). The rate is expected to increase this year, to 1.7% (IMF).
According to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the low unemployment rate of these past years is largely due to the new digital economy and entrepreneurship. Many analysts say, however, that the government figure is an unreliable indicator of national employment levels, as it takes into account only employment in urban areas and does not measure the millions of migrant workers that arrive in the country every year. Despite the global context, the unemployment rate stood at 5.1% last year and should remain stable over the forecast horizon (IMF). Between 2010 and 2021, China's middle class grew rapidly, rising from 9.8% to 32.1% of the population, the fastest increase globally. While urban areas saw the most upward mobility, the secure middle class in rural areas rose from 13.7% to 26.2%, indicating broader prosperity. However, a significant portion of the population remains economically insecure: 17% live on less than USD 6.85/day, and 38.2% belong to the vulnerable middle class, at risk of falling back below the poverty line (World Bank).
| Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 17,758.05 | 18,273.36 | 19,534.89 | 20,810.88 | 22,050.81 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.6 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 12,597 | 12,969 | 13,873 | 14,793 | 15,692 |
| General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | -6.3 | -7.0 | -7.4 | -7.7 | -7.9 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 84.4 | 90.1 | 93.8 | 97.7 | 102.1 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | 252.99 | 263.72 | 316.98 | 305.36 | 299.84 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021
China has a highly diversified economy, dominated by the manufacturing and agricultural sectors. It is the second most populated country in the world and one of the largest producers and consumers of agricultural products. The agricultural sector is estimated to employ 22% of the active population and to account for 7.1% of GDP (World Bank, latest data available), although only 15% of the Chinese soil (about 1.2 M km²) is arable. China is the leading global producer of cereals, rice, cotton, potatoes and tea. In terms of livestock, it also dominates sheep and pork livestock farming as well as the world’s fish production. A series of plans have been aimed at transforming, modernising and diversifying agriculture to increase productivity. China's 2024 grain output hit a record 706.5 million tonnes, up 1.6 %, surpassing 700 million tonnes for the first time, per National Bureau of Statistics data. Cereal production grew 1.7 %, with rice, wheat, and corn increasing, while tubers rose 1.5 %. Soybean output fell 0.9 %. The bumper harvest was driven by a 0.3 % rise in grain planting areas to over 119 million hectares and a 1.3 % increase in yield per unit area.
The industry sector contributes to approximately 38.3% of China's GDP and employs 32% of the population (World Bank). China has become one of the main destinations for the outsourcing of global manufacturing units thanks to its cost-competitive labour market, despite an increase in labour costs in recent years. The country is a global leader in various manufacturing sectors like machinery manufacturing; electronics; textiles and garments; and steel and automobiles (the Chinese manufacturer BYD overtook Tesla to become the world's biggest electric car company in 2023). China’s economic growth has coincided primarily with the development of a competitive and outward-oriented manufacturing sector. More than half of the Chinese exports are made by companies with foreign capital. Their share in the sector's added value varies according to the industry: more than 60% for electronics and less than 20% for the majority of producer goods. The value-added industrial output went up 5.8% year on year in 2024 (data NBS). In the same year, value-added output rose by 3.1 % in mining, 6.1 % in manufacturing, and 5.3% in electricity, thermal power, gas, and water supply. Equipment and high-tech manufacturing grew faster than overall industrial production, up 7.7% and 8.9%, respectively. High-tech manufacturing accounted for 16.3% and equipment manufacturing for 34.6% of total industrial output, increasing by 0.6 and 1 percentage points from 2023.
The services sector in China has witnessed rapid expansion in the last decade, becoming the largest contributor to GDP (54.6%), surpassing manufacturing, and employing around 46% of the workforce (World Bank). Even though the sector's GDP share has been growing in recent years, the service sector as a whole, encumbered by public monopolies and restrictive regulations, has progressed at a slower pace. The development of the sector has been constrained by the country’s focus on manufactured exports and the substantial barriers to investment in the sector. However, the Chinese government has been focusing more on the services sectors lately, particularly in sub-sectors such as finance, logistics, education, and healthcare, as it is also aiming to rank among the top exporters for transport, tourism and construction. The trade sector is particularly strong and includes online giants like Alibaba and JD.com. China's value-added service output grew 4.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, per NBS data. Information transmission, software, and IT services rose 11.3%, while catering and accommodation expanded 6.3%.
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 22.3 | 31.8 | 45.8 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 7.1 | 38.3 | 54.6 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.8 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024
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Actualitzacions: February 2025
