Zàmbia: Visió econòmica i política
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The economy of Zambia, the second-largest copper producer in Africa after the Democratic Republic of the Congo, is highly dependent on copper prices, which generate three-quarters of export earnings. The country's growth has slowed in recent years, due to the fall in the price of copper, but also to the consequences of the drought on agricultural and hydroelectric production, as well as the pandemic - which brought on the first recession recorded in the country since 1989. However, the economy resumed growing in 2021, when the country recorded a GDP growth of 1%, mainly thanks to high copper prices, the commissioning of the Kafue Gorge Lower hydroelectric plant, and a return to normal rainfall patterns. In 2022 and 2023, growth is expected to remain stable at 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively, with private consumption being its main driver.
In 2021, government deficit decreased thanks to higher mining revenues and a record dividend payment from the central bank, which put general government at the rate of 101%. Still, debt remain substantial in 2021 mainly due to increased government spending - including on fuel, agricultural input subsidies, and election-related spending. In 2022, however, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to slightly increase to 106.8%, and continue that upward trend in 2023, when it is expected to reach 109.2%. The country recorded an inflation rate of 22.8% in 2022, and it is expected to decrease to 19.2% in 2022 and 13% in 2023, on a continued downward trend toward the 6%-8% target range established by the central bank. With the easing of inflationary pressures, household incomes should benefit in 2022, boosting consumption. Underlying this projection is the positive impact of higher copper prices mainly through the exchange rate. In 2021, the government continued implementing various supportive measures to minimise the economic and social impact of the pandemic. Despite the efforts to contain the economic impact of the pandemic and ensure a quick recovery, the country's economic rebound has been slow but steady.
While Zambia achieved lower middle-income status in 2011, after a decade of strong growth, widespread and extreme rural poverty (half of Zambians still live in poverty) remains a significant problem and is compounded by a rate high birth rate and a relatively high burden of HIV/AIDS (one in eight Zambians has the virus). The coronavirus crisis has potentially affected 8 million people. The decision of the government not to subside the price of electricity to ease the burden on companies during the pandemic will have an impact on employment in the country. In 2020, the unemployment rate in the country was at 12.8% (ILO Estimate), with youth unemployment being particularly high, leading more young people in Zambia venture in businesses to counter unemployment.
| Main Indicators | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 (e) | 2022 (e) | 2023 (e) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 23.31e | 19.32e | 21.70 | 23.97 | 24.50 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 1.4e | -3.0e | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,272 | 1,023e | 1,115 | 1,196 | 1,187 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 97.4 | 128.7 | 101.0 | 106.8 | 109.2 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 9.2 | 15.7e | 20.5 | 15.7 | 9.2 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | 0.13 | 2.00 | 2.93 | 3.58 | 4.11 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | 0.6 | 10.4 | 13.5 | 14.9 | 16.8 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021
Note: (e) Estimated Data
The agricultural sector is the backbone of the Zambian economy: although the sector represents only 2.9% of the country's GDP, it employs 49.6% of the workforce (World Bank). Zambia spans 75 million hectares, of which 58% is classified as medium to high potential for agriculture production; however, agriculture in Zambia remains largely underexploited, with only 15% of its potential arable land under cultivation. The sector's low contribution to GDP is attributable to poor rural infrastructure and an extreme vulnerability to drought. Zambia's agricultural sector focuses mainly on crop-farming (maize, cotton, soybeans, tobacco, groundnuts, paprika, sorghum, wheat, rice, sunflower seeds) and livestock production. The country is also one of the biggest seed exporters in Africa. In 2021, despite the ongoing pandemic, there was a considerable growth in agriculture, mainly helped by good whether outturn, which shows positive prospects not only for the country's economy as a whole, but also for the rural population in particular.
The industrial sector is estimated to account for 40.2% of GDP and 10.5% of employment, mostly thanks to the mining, construction and manufacturing sub-sectors. Major industries of Zambia include copper mining and processing, construction, emerald mining, beverages, food, textiles, chemicals, fertiliser and horticulture. Growth in the manufacturing industry is largely driven by the agro-processing of food and beverages as well as the textiles and leather sub-sectors. However, dependency on copper which is the country’s main export makes Zambia vulnerable to fluctuations in the world commodities prices. While the country's industry sector, especially mining, was negatively impacted during the early stages of the pandemic, high copper prices and the reintroduction of measures allowing mining royalties to be deducted from corporate income tax have supported investment in the mining sector, which showed a significant recovery in 2021. In 2022, the development of the manufacturing sector should benefit from further tax breaks for export-oriented investments, as well as the reduction of the corporate tax rate from 35% to 30%.
Services play a major role in the Zambian economy. They represent 53.6% of GDP, and employ 39.8% of the total workforce. The tertiary sector includes a large wholesale and retail industry. Tourism is also growing and has a positive ripple effect on the transport and hotel sectors. Even though COVID-19 dampened the growth of tourism the country was experiencing, 2021 saw a slight recovery in the sector, a trend which is expected to continue in the coming years.
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 49.6 | 10.5 | 39.8 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 2.7 | 42.7 | 48.3 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | 17.2 | 0.6 | -6.2 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}
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Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
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Actualitzacions: September 2022
