Zàmbia: Visió econòmica i política
Despite a historic drought and pessimistic forecasts, Zambia’s economy demonstrated resilience. Still recovering from the COVID-19 recession, the country endured its worst drought in over two decades during the 2023/2024 rainy season, worsened by the El Niño weather pattern. Real GDP growth, which averaged 5.6% from 2021 to 2023, was estimated at 4% in 2024 as mining production grew for the first time in three years, rising by 12%, driven by the resumption of operations at Konkola Copper Mine, improvements at Mopani, and higher output from several other mines. This, along with growth in construction and services, helped sustain the overall GDP expansion. According to the World Bank, real GDP growth is projected at 6.2% in 2025 and 6.6% on average in 2026-27, driven by strong agricultural harvests, improved reservoir levels, and higher electricity generation. Growth will be supported by momentum across agriculture, mining, agrifood processing, and services linked to mining, agriculture, and tourism.
Preliminary figures show an improved fiscal position in 2024, with a budget deficit of 2.7% of GDP, driven by revenue growth from mining and resilient performance despite limited spending on goods, services, and capital due to constrained domestic financing. The proposed 2025 budget is ZMW 217.1 billion, equivalent to 26.6% of GDP, up from the revised 2024 budget of ZMW 202.1 billion (30.8% of GDP). The 2024 revision marked a ZMW 24.2 billion increase over the original budget of ZMW 177.9 billion (27.8% of GDP), representing a monetary rise of 7.4%. Higher domestic interest payments and resumed Eurobond debt servicing increased interest costs, crowding out productive spending. Debt restructuring is nearing completion after four years. However, the prolonged process has increased sovereign risk, discouraged foreign direct investment, weakened the local currency, and contributed to inflation, especially during the drought. Debt restructuring agreements with official bilateral creditors in October 2023, international bondholders in June 2024, and recent in-principle agreements with two major Chinese private creditors have resulted in agreements on over 90% of the debt to be restructured. Completing this process and implementing policy reforms, including debt management and energy sector improvements, should support Zambia's long-term fiscal sustainability. Meanwhile, gross international reserves increased from 3.4 months of imports in 2023 to 4.1 in 2024, supported by mining receipts and external financing from multilateral organizations. According to the Bank of Zambia, inflation was projected to average around 15% in 2024 driven by higher food prices and exchange rate depreciation (over 30% in 2024), with a slightly lower but still elevated projection of 13.9% for 2025. In February 2025, the monetary policy committee hiked the rate to 14.5% from 14%, its highest level in more than eight years.
While Zambia achieved lower middle-income status in 2011 after a decade of strong growth, the decline in Gross National Income (GNI) per capita led to Zambia's reclassification as a low-income country by the World Bank starting from the 2023 financial year. Despite its enormous economic potential linked to mining resources, poverty is widespread (63.1% of the population in 2024) and is compounded by a high birth rate and a relatively high burden of HIV/AIDS (one in ten Zambians has the virus). In 2024, the unemployment rate in the country was at 6% (World Bank), with youth unemployment being particularly high, leading more young people in Zambia to venture into businesses to counter unemployment. The country’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 4,260 in 2024 by the IMF.
| Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 28.16 | 25.91 | 31.83 | 36.81 | 41.14 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 5.4 | 2.3 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 5.6 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,369 | 1,226 | 1,466 | 1,652 | 1,799 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 127.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 10.9 | 14.6 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -0.55 | -0.06 | 2.19 | 2.11 | 2.59 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -1.9 | -0.2 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 6.3 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021
The agricultural sector is the backbone of the Zambian economy: although the sector represents only 2.2% of the country's GDP, it employs 55.4% of the workforce (World Bank, latest data available). Zambia spans 75 million hectares, of which 58% is classified as medium to high potential for agriculture production; however, agriculture in Zambia remains largely underexploited, with only 15% of its potential arable land under cultivation. The sector's low contribution to GDP is attributable to poor rural infrastructure and an extreme vulnerability to drought. Zambia's agricultural sector focuses mainly on crop farming (maize, cotton, soybeans, tobacco, groundnuts, paprika, sorghum, wheat, rice, sunflower seeds) and livestock production. The country is also one of the biggest seed exporters in Africa. According to FAO, a severe and widespread drought in early 2024 sharply reduced agricultural output, with total cereal production estimated at 1.9 million tonnes—43% below the five-year average. Maize, the main staple, was hit hardest, with the harvest dropping to 1.6 million tonnes, nearly 50% below average. Beyond low yields, large areas of maize were left unharvested due to crop failure from prolonged dryness and extreme heat.
The industrial sector is estimated to account for 35.1% of GDP and 9.9% of employment, mostly thanks to the mining, construction, and manufacturing sub-sectors. Major industries of Zambia include copper mining and processing, construction, emerald mining, beverages, food, textiles, chemicals, fertilizer, and horticulture. Growth in the manufacturing industry is largely driven by the agro-processing of food and beverages as well as the textiles and leather sub-sectors. However, dependency on copper which is the country’s main export makes Zambia vulnerable to fluctuations in the world commodities prices. Overall, the manufacturing sector is estimated to account for 9% of GDP (World Bank), and it grew by +4%, -2.7%, and +1.4% in the first three quarters of 2024, respectively, recording an +8.1% increase in the fourth quarter. For the year as a whole, the mining and quarrying sector grew by 8.8% (data Zambia Statistical Agency).
Services play a major role in the Zambian economy. They represent 56.8% of GDP and employ 34.7% of the total workforce. The tertiary sector includes a large wholesale and retail industry. Tourism is also growing and has a positive ripple effect on the transport and hotel sectors. In 2024, the fastest-growing industries were information & communication (17.4%), arts, entertainment & recreation (15.4%), and accommodation & food services (11.1%). Other notable gains came from financial & insurance activities (10.3%), public administration & defence (9.5%), and mining & quarrying (8.8%). In contrast, electricity supply (-28.9%), administrative & support services (-23.9%), water supply (-12.2%), and agriculture, forestry & fishing (-9.2%) experienced significant contractions. (data Zambia Statistical Agency). By the end of 2023, the banking sector consisted of seventeen commercial banks, with five banks dominating the scene. Together, these five banks held 65% of the total sector assets and deposits (IMF, latest data available).
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 55.4 | 9.9 | 34.7 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 2.2 | 35.1 | 56.8 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | -20.5 | 0.9 | 10.0 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
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Actualitzacions: May 2025
